FTSE +18 points at 7580 DAX +42 points at 13510 CAC +10 points at 5517 IBEX +42 points at 10358
The currency markets were quiet overnight, the US dollar was marginally higher. The USD/JPY found buyers at 113.70, more support is eyed at 113.40 (lower Bollinger band on daily chart). The Nikkei (+1.73%) and TOPIX (+1.15%) rallied on the back of decent downside pressure on yen. Nikkei closed at the highest level since January 1992. Decent call options stand between 113.50 and 115.00 as investors step up their hedges against a further yen depreciation against the greenback.
There is no major US data due this week. The attention is on Saudi Arabia’s anti-corruption purge. The authorities began freezing the accounts of people accused with corruption. There is some discomfort in the global security markets, provided that Saudi investors have hundreds of million-dollar worth investments in international companies, including hotel groups, tech giants and other. Hence, the investigations could weigh on several stock prices, yet the kneejerk impact should remain short-lived and would rapidly generate correction opportunities as soon as the dust will be settled from the first shock. Most of the companies’ underlying fundamentals remain intact. This reasoning does not apply to regional stocks, which have seen their idiosyncratic risks rising substantially. Stocks in Dubai wrote off more than 2% over the past two trading sessions.
The WTI crude extended gains to $57.70, Brent crude surged to $64.35, on expectation that the Saudi purge would strengthen the power of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, who supports the OPEC’s production cut agreement to sustain oil prices. The OPEC will meet on November 30 in Vienna.
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its cash rate target unchanged at 1.50% and delivered a dovish accompanying statement. The headline and core inflation remain below the bank’s bottom range of 2-3%. Retail sales fell to the weakest levels in three-month. Although the unemployment eased to 5.5% from 5.9% since March, the RBA stated that there is a ‘sizeable scare capacity’ in the jobs markets. As a result, the RBA is expected to stay pat as long as the inflation remains soft to deal with high household debt, despite its upbeat view on growth.
The AUD/USD gave little reaction to already-priced RBA statement and successfully held ground above its 50-week moving average (0.7638) as iron ore futures bounced 9% higher between Friday and Monday. Yet the decline in the Aussie rates have started ringing the alarm bell for carry traders. In a recent article, Bloomberg wrote that the Australian dollar could retrace to 70 cents level against the US dollar ‘as the extra yield on the nation’s bonds over US treasuries is about to vanish’. The 10-year AU/US spread has fallen to the lowest level since June. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) preparing to raise rates with 92.3% probability in December and the RBA seen steady until at least mid-2018, the fading rate differential could in fact weigh on the AUD/USD.
The EUR/USD remains under the pressure of low Eurozone yields. Due today, the German industrial production may have contracted in September and the soft data could further weigh on the euro. The critical support stands at 1.1509 (major 38.2% retrace on April – September rise) against the US dollar.
The GBP/USD rebounded to the 50, 100, 200-hour moving average zone, 1.3155/1.3175. Trend and momentum indicators on hourly chart turned positive. Offers are eyed at 1.3180 (50% retrace on Nov 1 – Nov 3 decline) and 1.3213 (major 61.8% retrace).
The FTSE 100 is poised for a bullish open on the back of firmer oil and commodity prices
Gold consolidates gains near $1’280 (mid-Bollinger band on daily chart). The upside correction could continue, offers are expected to come in play at $1’295/1’300 (50-day moving average/upper-Bollinger Band). Support is eyed at the 100-day moving average ($1’276). The bias should turn neutral in case of a break below this level.