1 Day McClellan OB/OS Oversold
Opinion: The indexes closed lower yesterday as internals continue to suffer. Several charts saw further deterioration as the mid and small caps remain the hardest hit with the COMPQX starting to join in the slide. Given the current state of the charts combined with poor internals, we remain of the opinion that the near term outlook for the major indexes is neutral/negative.
- On the charts, breadth and up/down volume were broadly negative implying further institutional distribution. The DJI (page 2) confirmed the “shooting star” candlestick formation discussed in yesterday’s comments. Meanwhile, the COMPQX (page 2), MID (page 4) and RUT (page 4) all broke below near term support as the MID joined the RUT below its 50 DMA. The COMPQX also closed back below its short term downtrend line darkening the picture. Finally, the DJT flashed a “bearish stochastic crossover signal” sending yet another warning sign. As of this morning the A/D levels for the All-Exchange, NYSE and NASDAQ are all below their 50 DMAs as the ValueLine Arithmetic has also dropped below its 50 DMA. The % of SPX stocks above their 50 DMAs has dropped to a paltry 52.6%. In short, internals look terrible across the board.
- Looking at the data, the 1 day McClellan OB/OS Oscillators are oversold on the NYSE (-87.18) and NASDAQ (-67.91) possibly offering some cushion. Yet the 21 day levels are both neutral at -38.75 and -32.52 respectively suggesting possible further downside. Sentiment remains a concern as well as the Rydex Ratio (contrary indicator) shows the leveraged ETF traders refusing to toss in the towel at an overly optimistic 57.1 while the pros have again turned negative with a 1.54 OEX Put/Call Ratio (smart money). As such, the data has taken on a slightly more negative tilt.
- In conclusion, as internals have yet to suggest a healthy prognosis and sentiment fails to show an appreciable amount of fear on the part of the “crowd”, we continue to see the near term outlook for the markets as neutral/negative over the near term.,
- For the longer term, we remain bullish on equities as they remain comparatively undervalued with a 6.39% forward earnings yield for the SPX based on 12 month IBES forward earnings estimates of $128.46 versus the 10 Year Treasury yield of 2.59%.