Despite lower than expected number of jobs added in the US, according to the NFP numbers, the Dollar reached an almost 4 months high against other major currencies, with the US Dollar Index (USDX) trading 0.19% higher. Meanwhile the Turkish Lira (TRY) traded for the first time above 4.29 for the USD/TRY as investors see inflation, sovereign rating downgrades and political uncertainty in Turkey as problematic.
Gold traded at a one week high in early trading on Monday as trade conflict concerns between the US and China persist, while on Friday a list of demands by the United States was released, which requested significant concessions from China to resolve the conflict. Oil reached a new record high since November 2014 as tensions between the US and its partners towards Iran remain.
US equities were trading stronger on Friday, with the NASDAQ (US Tech 100) managing to close the week at a higher level, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US 30) and S&P 500 (US 500) reduced their weekly losses).
On Monday Switzerland is set to publish its Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, while the US will later release its Consumer Credit statistics. In the Asian-Pacific trading session on Tuesday, Australia is set to publish its most recent Retail Sales statistics.
The EUR/USD reached a new low in close to 4 months, despite US economic data, such as the NFP missing the expected results. The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) showed that over the monthly reporting timeframe only 164,000 jobs were added (expected 191,000 jobs), while average hourly earnings were up by 0.1% m/m (expected +0.2%). However the unemployment rate fell to 3.9% (expected 4.0%). In Europe the Composite PMI and Retail Sales numbers both clearly missed the expectations.
On Monday Germany will publish Manufacturers' Orders statistics and in the US the most recent Consumer Credit numbers are set to be released.
Pivot: 1.198 Support: 1.1935 1.191 1.188Resistance: 1.198 1.201 1.2035 Scenario 1: short positions below 1.1980 with targets at 1.1935 & 1.1910 in extension. Scenario 2: above 1.1980 look for further upside with 1.2010 & 1.2035 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.
Bitcoin traded close to the $10,000 level for the first time in over 8 weeks over the weekend, before retracing to the levels seen last week. The fall was among other factors attributed to Japan’s regulatory authorities announcing stricter oversight over cryptocurrency exchanges, in order to assure consumer protection and measures against money laundering.
Last week (until Saturday) marked the 4th consecutive week of higher Bitcoin prices, a trend last time seen at the end of 2017.
Pivot: 9511 Support: 9063 8929 8795Resistance: 9423 9511 9736 Scenario 1: the downside prevails as long as 9511 is resistance. Scenario 2: above 9511, look for 9736 and 9870. Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the pair stands below its 20 and 50 MAs (respectively at 9445 and 9575).
WTI Oil
Oil traded higher on Friday and in early trading on Monday, with WTI crude oil trading above the $70 mark for the first time in almost 3.5 years. Analysts blame the geo-political tensions surrounding the situation in Iran and the productions difficulties in crisis-struck Venezuela for the uptick in prices. Meanwhile on Friday the newest Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count numbers for the US showed again an increase in producing oil rigs, now at 834 (+9). This is the highest level in over 3 years and marks the 6th consecutive week of a higher number of oil rigs in operation.
On Tuesday the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release oil stockpile figures, followed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.
Pivot: 69.5 Support: 69.5 68.9 68.15Resistance: 70.7 71.1 71.45 Scenario 1: long positions above 69.50 with targets at 70.70 & 71.10 in extension. Scenario 2: below 69.50 look for further downside with 68.90 & 68.15 as targets. Comment: the RSI shows upside momentum. The upward momentum is further reinforced by the rising 20-period moving average.
US Tech 100
US equity indices, especially the tech value traded higher on Friday, despite mixed economic data as the NFP results were below the market expectations. Chipmaker’s stocks (US Semiconductors ETF +2.54%) were in particular trading higher.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) (+3.86%), which is the most significant share in the NASDAQ (US Tech 100) by index weight, significantly recovered following the positive earnings, despite some pessimistic outlooks by some analysts. Alibaba’s (+4.0%) earnings yet again were able to surpass the market expectations with revenue and active consumer growth. MetLife (NYSE:MET) (+4.68%) traded higher as earnings surpassed expectations, helped by the recent tax reform and growth in Asia.
As companies publish their quarterly earnings, the earnings season could bring new impulses to the markets. Among other companies on Tuesday Walt Disney and on Thursday Nvidia are set to disclose their quarterly earnings.
Pivot: 6717 Support: 6717 6650 6590 Resistance: 6865 6929.25 6990 Scenario 1: long positions above 6717.00 with targets at 6865.00 & 6929.25 in extension. Scenario 2: below 6717.00 look for further downside with 6650.00 & 6590.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI broke above a declining trend line.