DJT Breaks 1 Year Downtrend And Resistance

www.investing.com/analysis/djt-breaks-1-year-downtrend-and-resistance-200152427

By Guy S. Ortmann, CMT | Sep 08, 2016 08:56AM ET

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US500

-1.78%

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DJI

-0.99%

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RTYH25

+0.27%

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IXIC

-2.61%

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-0.42%

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Opinion: The bulk of the indexes closed higher yesterday with the exceptions of the SPX (page 2) and DJI (page 2) closing fractionally lower. All closed at or near their intraday highs with positive internals. Volumes rose on the NASADQ and dipped on the NYSE. There were a number of positive technical chart events registered while the data remains essentially neutral. As such, our near term outlook for the major indexes remains “neutral/positive” while persistent high forward valuation of the SPX keeps our intermediate term view at “neutral”.

On the charts, the SPX and DJI saw fraction losses yesterday as the rest posted further gains. Internals saw positive breadth and up/down volumes. Positive chart events occurred on several indexes, most notably, in our opinion, the DJT (page 3) closing above its long term downtrend line that had been a negative boundary since August 2015. As well, it closed above its near term resistance. The COMPQX (page 3), MID (page 4) and VALUA (page 5) all made new closing highs. All of the short term uptrend lines remain intact as well as the advance/decline lines for the indexes. We would note the stochastic levels for the COMPQX, DJT, MID, RUT and VALUA are now in overbought territory. However, we remain of the opinion that said stochastics do not become “actionable” until bearish crossovers are generated, which can require extended periods before appearing.

The data continues to send its neutral signals. All of the McClellan OB/OS Oscillators remain neutral (All Exchange:+17.6/+36.34 NYSE:+34.56/+85.2 NASDAQ:+35.13/+59.44) along with the WST Ratio/Composite (52.8/130.1), Equity Put/Call Ratio (0.57) and Gambill Insider Buy/Sell Ratio (11.1). The OEX Put/Call Ratio (smart money) remains bearish at 1.7 with the pros remaining long puts, but less so than the prior session.

In conclusion, we have yet to see enough of a shift in the weight of the evidence to alter our near term “neutral/positive” short term view for the major equity indexes. High forward valuation of the SPX keeps our intermediate term outlook at “neutral”.

Forward 12 month earnings estimates for the SPX from IBES of $127.22 leave a 5.82% forward earnings yield on a 17.2 forward multiple.

SPX: 2,160/2,194

DJI: 18,374/18,637

NASDAQ: 5,160/NA

DJT: 7,795/8,115

MID: 1,534/NA

RUT: 1,221/1,266

VALUA: 4,904/NA

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DJT Breaks 1 Year Downtrend And Resistance

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