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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

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Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
224.93
-9.27(-3.96%)
Closed

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

DXY, FND, bond yields. Everything was today against coffee bulls ;)
Wait and see the beginning of the week. Let's see whether it confirms or not. Bullish here.
Dollar did it all. Look how was the market today.
COT reports in 2 hours will tell us exactly what we need to know
It seems that both, commercial/non commercial have increased (approx. same % than last week) in the same way ?
Robert is right... you would only see what's prevalent early in the week.. and what happened early in the week would be totally turned 180 on Thursday and friday
If I'm not wrong that's bullish.
I was planning to average up from 237.. I was only able to sell one batch at 237.. didn't think it will tank this fast.. anyway I'm closing shorts today.. 237 to 224.. cheers.. you should do the same if you're shorting..
Congrats to all those buying at the low.
it will go up strong like cocoa.
Dreams
is a good mark of coffee.
it's going directly to 200
It will rebound
What the caffee market indicates. Otherwise it would be strange.
hello mr.Jonh
Where is it going?
south
Theres a road to north. The right signal takes to right and up.
Cocoa yesterday +5.04%.
Today -10%
What a surprise. I always thought there is no fraud here.
They talk to them :) :) :). My G-Grandma used to have goats. I liked to talk to them while being a kid :). I thought they are interested in communication or to listen my stories :) . Then she told me they listen because they know treat is coming after. I got very depressed :) :) :)... I thought I had a talent to talk to goats :)...
Short Dude. Within first week of June 80 countries have broken their records: June vs June in a past or all time. Some w-guys say that in the climatic history there was nothing like that ... My question: You read such narration, you know that at some point it's gonna end, on the magazines covers :) indicator basis it suggests that top is in the making and cooling will start right after. HOW do you see the transition that is coming: SWIFT or SOFT ? :)
SE Asia Heat Waves: Records have been falling every day for about 500 days and are continuing. All this is based on stations data. No fantasy land... Oceania is not far behind :). They produce coffee. Can super crop emerge in this conditions ? Let's say, stations are not in the fields. But it's a pattern... Hardly it may suggest a super crop in this/next year...
There is an opinion that R is in a blue sky territory :).
FND soon. Rally should start after FND
incredible how the funds are sofisticated ..look at the charts and drops where they starts and when they finished .. incredible
Short Dude. 240 is very important level on weekly :). And it will take time to digest... If rumors are true to reasonable extent, conservatively sieve+cup issue may produce :) 5mb A, add to this 2 - 3mb from ES R and you'll get 7-8mb, make it 5mb for simplicity - you'll get 5mb drop instead of promised 5mb increase, huge level of confusion, automatic projection for other origins and if all that will not create a panic narration, I'll reduce my personal coffee consumption drastically :).
5mb drop will make ending stocks 24/25, projected to be 3.5mb paper null or, in real terms, very very small - close to zero. Also consider, that if true - Brazil never dealt with such a quality (cup) issue in its modern history (A).
Short Dude. Revista's publication is, probably, first official :) coffee media comment, stating the facts but not projecting... Two things out of it: 1) it came came way before 1/2 the harvest is completed , what may :) imply that: a) Revista doesn't want to give away all the clicks to Volcafe :); b) harvest goes a bit quicker than usually; c) problem is real as it becoming obvious already at this stage; 2) if all this will be :) proven applicable to El Rei Do Cafe, will it be immediately extrapolated on other, not so advanced origins that have been affected in similar way ? (Actually, almost of them...)
48C was recorded yesterday in Oaxaca. Station, that recorded, is not at coffee farm, but it gives a clue what's going on there... It should be close to its end, but many trees are already stressed, so any few days/weeks more may add to the damage in non-linear fashion (they will add :)). Yield will suffer.. and possibly :) not for just one season... :) :) :)
***** Almost all of the origins have been affected: CA, M, Asia, Oceania, India, Caribbean,...)
A bit more unknowns: 20/21 drought and frost produced substantial damage to some trees. The fact was recorded and reflected by production numbers in 21/22, 22/23. Some trees have been replanted but most likely not all of them. Drought effects may last up to 5 years easy as studies shown. If to consider, that 23/24 high temp issue somehow :) affected those trees (that survived drought/frost and have been not replanted) , the yield of those trees may disappoint for next few years without any problems or they may be considered for replanting, etc. In any case, if true - it will affect 25/26 and 26/27 crops. :)
From a mouth of a coffee roaster : I used to drink a lot of coffee. Now although I am in possession of a lot of coffee bags, I've cut my coffee consumption in half. It's gone mad. What do you guys think ?
260 looks like sure target now
where are you seeing the coffee arabica proces during this year ?
i am not coffee expert but acording to chart and everything is pumping hard this year so its possible
Last post from Cafeicultura on Twitter. Huge quality problem with current crop. 30% more beans are needed to fulfill 60kg bag. Wow
So, narration is changing ? :) :) :) Comments are problem is widespread, not just one area ... Perfectly fits the studies :) :) :).
Initial comments from many were pointing to 10 - 15% drop due to size/weight. But size size/weight is not the only problem - taste quality is gonna be next. :)
If cupping will will confirm rumors :), ICE inflow will be affected what will add a bit of fire :). Averaged rumors about quality issues (A) from many areas have been pointing to bigger problem than size/weight ...
Robusta at ATH again. Soon more expensive than Arabica? Arabica should catch up?
Volcafe created some real confusion :) ? In relation to Brazil, some could have start to assume a real drop for R in ES, 20% or so... Would correlate well with drop in 15/16, 16/17 years on drought in SE Brazil and Super El Nino 15/16. R production in ES in 15/16 was 24 percent lower vs 14/15, in 16/17 production was 30 lower than in 15/16 and 49% lower than in 14/15. Many have been comparing 15/16 El Nino with 23/24 El Nino, not like 23/24 replicated 15/16, but by many metrics it was similar... It took 3 years for R in ES to get back to the level from which it dropped...
ES, R: 13/14 - 12.3mb, 14/15 - 13.10mb, 15/16 - 9.9mb, 16/17 - 6.7mb, 17/18 - 7.2mb, 18/19 - 10.9mb, 19/20 - 12.9mb, USDA. Drop was related to drought in SE Brazil and Strong El Nino 15-16.
The road back to 12.9mb (13/14 and 14/15 pre-El Nino levels) was not very fast... What begs the question about production in 25/26 MY :).
I suggest you guys check Vicente Zotti on twitter... he has very interesting and unbiased tweets...
Arabica: 34.870, Conilon: 20.293, numbers from his twitter.
Joke ?
No, not a joke. This what Vicente Zotti published after crop tour at the time and it is still open for public in his tweeter, what implies that this is still his view at 23/24 crop :). Yes, it is for 23/24MY, not for 24/25.
Diamond on 4h
Stoch on daily produced a delicate buy signal and is trying to crawl into overbought segment. If true - may surprise for about 30 points... No agitation as always.
Roughly 30p would also correlate with the pattern and touch 260 level. Would be very comfortable :) indeed.
A good cup of coffe fix it all. (For all those with a bad day...)
All those who rejoice at the optimistic USDA reports, which mention records or harvests close to the records of '20, forget that for 4 years consumption has grown by 15million bags. That is, even if the USDA reports were true, it doesn't mean anything extraordinary and the market is still tight with very low stocks. Now what happens when the USDA has to be revised downward. As VOLCAFE is showing today!
Maja is powered by love and passion to coffee and its producers. Volcafe is highly professional business :). Nothing wrong, but their statements/evaluations must benefit the business or to be "No comments" :).
Check their site in Vietnam section :). They are good !
July arabica coffee (KCN24) on Tuesday closed up +7.35 (+3.24%), and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN24) closed up +60 (+1.40%). Coffee prices on Tuesday settled higher. Coffee continues to be supported by fears that excessive dryness in Brazil and Vietnam will damage coffee crops and curb global production. On May 22, coffee trader Volcafe said Vietnam's 2024/25 robusta coffee crop may only be 24 million bags, the lowest in 13 years, as poor rainfall in Vietnam has caused "irreversible damage" to coffee blossoms.
Hope all chock on coffee
You sound Mad. But you'll get over it. One thing you should know , its never what it looks like. Just be cool...and continue with the trade. In this trading Black is white and White is black.
Mgom, I hope you didn't take my advice too seriously and put your farm on a price drop bet?
I agree.. although I don't think it gets much higher..
I don't know if it will be true And I don't want to feel like liar However I would risk to say It seems it's gonna go much higher :) :) :)
In current circumstances JM would approve this message :) :) :)
As MGom said, 69.9mb is a lot of coffee and the one likes it or not but balance sheet is done for now. So, it's time to watch and soon we'll all see if there is any cavalry in the woods or none :) :) :).
229 // 231 // 233 // 237 ? Soon.
...
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