US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

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ES, Arabica: on May 27th Arabica harvest in ES was officially open. During the opening ceremony, Incaper's Coffee Farming Coordinator, Fabiano Tristão, gave a talk, etc. According to INCAPER, Espírito Santo is expected to produce around 4.2 million bags of coffee in 2024.

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Viriato Magalhaes 1 hour ago

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Kenan, just an example: same Incaper :) that was nervous about R production in ES since last year ( up to 30% drop vs expected, same Fabiano) shows no doubts re A production. 4.2mb of A in 24/25 vs ... 2.9mb in 23/24, on roughly same productive area. No end of coffee in Brazil in sight :)... May the reason be that A and R main production in the state is in a bit different areas and so, those areas have been affected differently ? If this is the case, then may Incaper be right about possible production drop for R vs EXPECTATIONS (not exact 23/24 figure) ? Nobody knows, but it would be reasonable to assume that it may... As it would be reasonable to assume that CONAB, while dealing for the first time with that high temps and their possible effect (read - not having previous precise statistic and so not being able to evaluate the effect) but at the same time seeing growth in production in some areas, has decided for simplicity, that growth in some areas may possibly compensate the drop in other areas ? Would it be also reasonable for Conab to consider, as there was no hard statistic from the past never, to show some growth in A and then to deal with the consequences if at all, do not scare the market at the moment when the problem feels :) to be global ? As the coffee is important part of the economy, it is important for Brazilian economy that farmers would continue selling but not hoarding to provide the flow and to, frankly speaking, prevent some exporters, etc firms from falling ? :)

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Viriato Magalhaes 1 hour ago

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There are several ways to look at the prices, one is ratio to competitive product: A/R ratio (monthly chart) explains why many A producers may feel some kind of a frustration :). If Vietnam will show great and ES will show great, R will correct to more reasonable levels obviously. But what if not ? :) What if V and ES will not show amazing figures ? Will A stay where it is, even assuming Brazilian A crop will not show drop ? :)

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Viriato Magalhaes 10 minutes ago

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(Published 2015.)

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Sam Houston 2 hours ago

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watching and enjoying

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Coffee Arabica 2 hours ago

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Sam “the bear” Houston goes long?!

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Kenan Hajdari 1 hour ago

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Hey Sam what do you know

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Viriato Magalhaes 2 hours ago

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Rodrigo, this is how it sounds: The European Deforestation Regulation, or EUDR, will outlaw sales of products such as coffee beginning December 30, 2024, if companies can't prove they are not linked with deforestation. The new rules' scope is wide: They will apply to cocoa, coffee, soy, palm oil, wood, rubber and cattle. (Mar 30, 2024)

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Viriato Magalhaes 2 hours ago

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To sell those products in Europe, big companies will have to show they come from land where forests haven't been cut since 2020. Smaller companies have until July 2025 to do so. It's not fail-safe. Companies can just sell products that don't meet the new requirements elsewhere, without reducing deforestation. Thousands of small farmers unable to provide the potentially expensive data could be left out. Much depends on how countries and companies react to the new laws, Bellfield said. Countries must help smaller farmers by building national systems that ensure their exports are traceable. Otherwise, companies may just buy from very large farms that can prove they have complied. Already, orders for Ethiopian-grown coffee have fallen. And Peru lacks the capacity to provide information needed for coffee and cocoa grown in the Peruvian Amazon.

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Viriato Magalhaes 2 hours ago

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Exact implementation in relation to specific jurisdiction/area may vary... Most likely, the reality will be understood when it will get started. But Brazil should be good: :) Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, is better placed, since its coffee grows on plantations that are far away from forests and it has a relatively well-organized supply chain. Also, Brazilian-grown coffee is most likely to meet the EUDR requirements, according to a 2024 Brazilian study, because much of it is exported to the EU, Brazil has fewer small farmers, and about a third of its coffee-growing acreage already has some kind of sustainability certification. :):):) Also, it seems it's gonna be a transition period from 2024 to 2028, a specially for small growers and small origins - a softer way to adjust ... Brazil is few steps ahead :) :) :) (as some researchers started saying about sense to create high temps resistant cultivars about 20 years ago).

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Viriato Magalhaes 2 hours ago

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Kenan, the fact that Brazil is advanced when it comes to coffee (and some other products) should not surprise you: 1) it is important part of the economy; 2) Brazil is a powerhouse with 220mil people (335mil USA) and a lot of arable land (huge potential), top 5 producer of roughly 35 commodities; 3) Brazil produces tons of researches, related to important industries and invests a lot of money into tech, to have higher yield, etc. That explains Brazilian success in coffee growing - it is a real industry.

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Ana Era 5 hours ago

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Coffee market is a shame.. manipulation of the information and it does not meet any technical parameter

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Coffee Arabica 4 hours ago

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Stop reading those funny lines, they don’t mean anything.

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Nikolay Borisov 6 hours ago

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that's like a tornado for me, 5 digits profit ......

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ShortDude 7 hours ago

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Today Arabica PA is much stronger than R. It is beginning to become clear that the A harvest is worse than predicted?

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Kenan Hajdari 8 hours ago

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First we've had Marco Antonio Jacob - he was telling us terrible news about coffee production...but again there was carryover- a lot of it. Then came Maya Wallengren ... same thing - even more carryover. Now we have got Viriato... Viri is writting big novels about end days for coffee - next we'll see a huge carryover. I can only say one thing : kudos to the speculators .

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ShortDude 3 hours ago

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The chart confirms that he is right and you are wrong. At least at the moment.

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Viriato Magalhaes 3 hours ago

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Kenan, if you mean me - I'm misleading nobody as I'm agitating nobody to do anything. Be short or long or whatever - it's your personal business and nobody else's... Pay attention that not Bruno nor Rodrigo are complaining and if you read 68mb for Brazilian crop as end of coffee you're read it incorrectly. Irrigation wise, as I had 100ha farm experience with dripping irrigation, all built from scratch, I would risk to say that at first, not every plot may have this option applicable in general, and second - you should know how it works... A normal system for 100ha farm would include: 1) couple of reservoirs with a pump station; 2) piping through the farm; 3) a line to the lake or river with a separate pump. For dripping type and 100 ha, all in all, in a labor (relatively) cheap jurisdiction, depending on some local duties/available options, your price may get close to six zeros figure easy. Besides the fact that intake from the lake/river is highly regulated by local officials and depends on many variables, ongoing drought and / or current water level including, you should understand that while talking about certain elevations, hardly you will find any lake or river there...:) While you may not like the fact itself, those are areas where a lot of coffee is still grown... :) Reservoirs, if they can be applicable on landscape/elevation basis :), are getting field with springs/ground water :) :) :) or ... rains. You got drought - you got no water in or the level is too low and it sucks in substances :) that will damage your system, etc. Pay attention, that all works on electricity for which, if you got no lines, going to your farm :), you have options: 1) to pay for extending existing lines to your field ($$$) if applicable; 2) to pay for solar station which you need to service; 3) to pay for diesel which will power your irrigation system.

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Rodrigo Faria 3 hours ago

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What do you tell us about the regulation of coffee imports into the EU regarding deforestation-free products? There are reports that companies have increased imports before this law comes into full force at the end of the year. Isn't this a positive factor for prices?

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Viriato Magalhaes 2 hours ago

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All of my posts are based on open sources only, it's my basis. You may verify it at any time using Google. From time to time I may make a mistake or mistype, but I correct immediately after noting it. :)

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Bruno O Souza 2 hours ago

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Coffee Arabica the bulls are bullishing not me

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Oscar Correa 8 hours ago

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Another cup and handle?

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Robert Cunderlik 7 hours ago

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so you mean the trend is to go long ?

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Oscar Correa 7 hours ago

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Keep calm and buy the dips ;)

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Robert Cunderlik 10 hours ago

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Guys I just wanna ask you when we will most probably know what is the real situation in Brazil ?

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ShortDude 9 hours ago

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You never know with Brazil. It's still unclear how Brazil exports so much, thanks to a good harvest in 23-24 or thanks to carryover stocks? The answer to that question could be worth millions!

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Viriato Magalhaes 8 hours ago

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48C was recorded in Oaxaca and 48C - in Veracruz. No USDA (GAIN) reports today.

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Viriato Magalhaes 8 hours ago

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Tape didn't say those temps were recorded at the farms, so nobody knows... But 48C air temp may mean 53 - 60C On Leaf temp, depending on other factors as drought, if it's shade grown, health of the tree, etc... (Study I referred to couple of days ago, concluded that 90 min of 49C air temp - no flowers, no fruits assuming good soil level of moisture.)

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Fudbal Fudbalko 7 hours ago

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Viriato Magalhaes Man, do you have a life other than this

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ShortDude 7 hours ago

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Kudos Viriato, this is real commodity trading, supported by good knowledge about fundamentals.

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ShortDude 10 hours ago

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Wheat has reached its highest level in more than nine months. The reason is supply concerns, which have been exacerbated by dry weather in major producers and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Analysts in recent weeks have lowered production estimates for Russia's largest exporter, while Ukraine is having its driest May on record. Nervousness is also heightened by historically low rainfall in Western Australia. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that global wheat stocks could fall to their lowest level in nine years in the coming season. Hedge funds, in turn, are reducing net bearish bets on the U.S. market.

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