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EUR/USD falls to 1-month low amid widespread China, Middle East concerns

Published 01/04/2016, 05:38 PM
Updated 01/04/2016, 05:46 PM
EUR/USD fell for the fourth straight session on Monday, closing at 1.0832.
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Investing.com -- UR/USD extended a mild losing streak from late last week on Monday, falling to its lowest level in more than a month, as currency traders digested weak Chinese manufacturing data and mounting Islamic sectarian conflict in the Middle East on a volatile start to the 2016 trading year.

The currency pair traded in a broad range between 1.0782 and 1.0946 before settling at 1.0832 down 0.0022 or 0.21% on the session. At one point, the euro fell to its lowest level versus the dollar since December 3 when the European Central Bank rattled global foreign exchange markets by only approving limited easing measures to it comprehensive asset purchasing program at a closely-watched meeting. The euro has now closed lower against the dollar in each of the last four sessions and six of the last seven. Last week, EUR/USD ended the year down more than 10% capping a tumultuous year for the euro amid divergent monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the ECB. Over the next 12 months, the Fed could approve as many as four rate hikes as the U.S. central bank gradually embarks on its first tightening cycle in a decade.

EUR/USD likely gained support at 1.0561, the low from December 1 and was met with resistance at 1.1041, the high from Dec. 9.

The dollar built on gains from last week after China reported weaker than expected manufacturing data in December, sparking fresh concerns of slowing growth in the world's second-largest economy. Last month, the China Caixin PMI index fell by 0.4 points to 48.2, considerably below analysts' forecasts for a 49.0 reading. Any reading below 50 provides indications of contraction in the manufacturing sector. The disappointing data weighed on Chinese stocks, as the Shanghai Composite Index halted trading at one point on Monday after falling by as much as 7%.

The Chinese sell-off spilled over into global stock markets on a bearish start to 2016. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by as much as 450 points, suffering one of its worst openings to a year in more than 80 years, while the Germany Dax experienced its worst session in five years. As investors exited from their position in global equities, many flocked to less risky U.S. government bonds, as treasury yields fell for the third consecutive session. Yields on the U.S. 10-Year fell by nearly seven basis points to 2.207%, its lowest level since Dec. 18, before closing at 2.243%.

Investors await the release of euro area inflation data and Germany factory orders on Tuesday for further indications on whether the ECB could enact further stimulus measures later this month. Analysts expect an annual rise of 0.4% in inflation last month, following a 0.2% rise in November.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, gained more than 0.35% to an intraday high of 99.30, its highest level in two and a half weeks, before closing at 98.94. The index has closed higher in six straight sessions.

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