The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Tuesday uncertain.
- ES pivot 2120.83. Holding above is bullish.
- Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias lower.
- YM futures trader: short at 17,670.
So last week we got the Clinton Crash when the FBI (the Federal Bunglers Institute) gave reason to believe that Hillary was really a crook. And then on Monday we got the Hillary Hike when Craven "Two Face" Comey changed his mind and decided that, surprise!, she was actually still just a tad "careless" (I'll have to remember that the next time I get caught speeding - "Gee officer, I wasn't breaking the law, I was just careless") after all..
And Mr. Market lapped it up, to the tune of 371 Dow points, ending highly overextended losing streaks in both the Dow and SPX. Of course, you could have seen this coming from the technicals even before Comey dropped his latest bombshell. He just juiced the process already underway and sent the Dow rocketing off its zero RSI in a big way.
But hey, I made money today so who am I to complain? If it takes having a smarmy, smirking, lying, self-dealing, disingenuous, carpet bagging paranoid egomaniac for president, then so be it. Meanwhile we move on to the election of the century. At this point it's looking like a foregone conclusion, but then that's what they said about Brexit, wasn't it? At least we live in interesting times.
The technicals
Market index futures: Monday night, all three futures are slightly lower at 12:16 AM EST with ES down 0.04%.
ES daily pivot: As of Monday night the ES daily pivot zooms from 2084.33 to 2120.83. And even that wasn't enough to put ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.
I think Monday's action went a long way toward baking in the pop I was expecting should the Big Liar win the election on Tuesday. As it stands I still think she's going to do it. But then what do I know, I also thought Britain would vote against Brexit.
But with this big move already on the books, I don't see another major pop if she wins. If she loses, we'll probably see some selling, though not 10 to 20% like some Chicken Littles are predicting. Meanwhile, I'm expecting little movement on Tuesday, sort of like a pre-Fed day as people just sit around waiting for the results. Accordingly, the only choice I have is to call Tuesday uncertain.
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight.