It’s been a tough quarter, which comes to a finish after today’s close. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are set for a painful start to the week, down more than 1% in pre-market trading.
Bulls are hoping that stocks can find their footing this morning, but we’ll have to see how shifts in the options market, end-of-quarter positioning among the big funds, and new capital flow to start off Q2 impacts markets this week.
Otherwise, it’s a bit quiet on the event front — at least, the ones that are planned.
On Tuesday, the JOLTs report will be released at 10 a.m. ET, provided us with a monthly update on job openings and labor turnover. Last month, the JOLTs report was a source of reassurance. Can it do the same thing tomorrow?
However, the big focus this week comes on Friday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET with the release of the monthly jobs report. Investors will keep a close eye on this report, as it will tell us how many jobs were added or lost in March, as well as provide the updated unemployment rate.
Let’s see how the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 handle today’s potential retest of the Q1 lows and go from there.
The setup: Bitcoin
Bitcoin hasn’t been immune to the recent selloff, but lately, BTC has been holding up. It’s down less than 3% from the end of February, whereas the S&P 500 is down more than 6%. Further, from the March low, BTC is up 7%, while the S&P 500 is likely set to challenge this month’s low today.
That doesn’t necessarily make BTC a “flight to safety” trade like gold, but it’s interesting that this “risk-on” asset is not making new lows alongside US stocks.
Lastly, Bitcoin bottomed two days before US stocks (on March 11th). Is it acting as a leading indicator for US equities?
Chart as of the close on 8:20 a.m. ET. Source: eToro ProCharts, courtesy of TradingView.
Regardless of how it’s acting, bulls will want to see BTC eventually regain the 200-day moving average and clear downtrend resistance. If it can do so, perhaps Bitcoin can make a push into the low-$90,000 range, which was a prior key support/resistance area in Q4 and Q1.
If resistance remains intact though, the Q1 lows could be in play should Bitcoin continue lower.
What Wall Street is Watching
NVDA - Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is lower by more than 4% in pre-market trading and set to potentially challenge its Q1 lows from earlier this month. If the stock breaks below its lows from March 11, Nvidia will hit its lowest level since at least last September.
GLD (NYSE:GLD) - The precious metals trade has continued to work so far this year, with the GLD and SLV ETFs continuing to push higher. Both are higher in today’s pre-market session and are higher by more than 17% so far this year.
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