Wednesday's Market Data And The FOMC

Upcoming US Events for Today:

1. Consumer Price Index for August will be released at 8:30am. The market expects no  change on a month-over-month basis versus an increase of 0.1% previous.   Less Food and Energy, the index is expected to increase by 0.2% versus an increase of 0.1% previous.
2. Current Account for the Second Quarter will be released at 8:30am. The market expects –$114.0B versus –$111.2B previous.
3. Housing Market Index for September will be released at 10:00am. The market expects 56 versus 55 previous.
4. Weekly Crude Inventories will be released at 10:30am.
5. FOMC Meeting Announcement will be released at 2:00pm. The market expects no change in rates at 0 to 0.25%.   The Chair Press Conference will follow at 2:30pm.

Upcoming International Events for Today:

1. Bank of England Minutes will be released at 4:30am EST.
2. Great Britain Labour Market Report for August will be released at 4:30am EST. The market expects the Claimant Count to decline by 32,000 versus a decline of 33,600 previous.   The Unemployment Rate is expected to tick lower to 6.3% versus 6.4% previous.
3. Euro-Zone CPI for August will be released at 5:00am EST. The market expects a year-over-year increase of 0.3% versus an increase of 0.4% previous.
4. Japan Merchandise Trade for August will be released at 7:50pm EST.   The market expects a deficit of ¥1028.6B versus a deficit of ¥964.0B previous.

The Markets

Stocks rallied on Tuesday as investors bet on the Fed being less hawkish than originally expected when the latest monetary policy announcement is released on Wednesday. Major equity indices clawed back recent losses accumulated since the month began, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is once again testing resistance at the summer highs. As well, the VIX charted a significant outside reversal, dropping almost 10% and exceeding the trading range from the previous session. However, despite all of the bullish qualities that dominated the session, defensive equity positions continued to top the market leaderboard; Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities saw returns top that of the broad market, while a number of cyclical sectors underperformed.   The suggestion remains that investors are continuing to become risk averse, potentially in anticipation of broad market weakness ahead.

Risk aversion in the equity market is becoming clearly apparent when looking at the ratio of Consumer Staples ETF (ARCA:XLP) versus Consumer Discretionary ETF (ARCA:XLY) and the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index versus the S&P 500 Large Cap Index. In both cases, the lower beta, more defensive position has outperformed the riskier, higher beta counterpart since the year began as investors show their reluctance in taking on risk. The ratio of Consumer Staples versus Consumer Discretionary has just broken above an intermediate declining trendline in recent sessions, suggesting a renewed trend of risk aversion, similar to that realized in the Spring of this year. Risk aversion seasonally reaches a peak at this time of year with consumer staples maintaining an outperforming trend versus the consumer discretionary sector through to November.

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.89.

S&P 500 Index

TSE Composite

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF Horizons Seasonal Rotation (TO:HAC)

• Closing Market Value: $14.44 (up 0.28%)
• Closing NAV/Unit: $14.42 (up 0.21%)

Performance*

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