The financial markets continue the ride on theme that Fed will only adopt a very gradual pace of rate hikes. DJIA extended recent rally and closed up 83.55 pts, or 0.47%, at 17716.66. S&P 500 closed up 8.94 pts, or 0.44%, at 2063.95. The development now raises chances of revisiting record highs made last year. Asia markets follow with Nikkei trading mildly up by 0.2% at the time of writing. In the forex markets, dollar continues to be the weakest major currency over the week and is set to be the worst performing one for March. Yen closely followed as the second weakest for the week and the month on rebound in stocks. Meanwhile, commodity currencies are generally higher.
In US, Chicago Fed president Charles Evans said that "a very shallow path -- such as the one envisioned by the median FOMC participant in March -- is the most appropriate path for policy normalization over the next three years." Though, he maintained that the economy "is going to be strong enough" and he expected two rate hikes this year. According to Evans, the thresdhold for April hike is "pretty high". June hike "would be on the basis of further improvements in the labor market like what we've had." And, "further movement like that would be a good reason to sort of further adjust, gradually, this rate."
The resumption in DJIA's rally from 15450.56 now pushed it through falling trend line resistance. The development now suggests that the consolidation pattern from 18351.36 is a three wave pattern rather than a five wave triangle. And such consolidation could have completed at 15450.56 already. Further rise is expected and break of 17977.84 would likely send the index to new historical high. Though, we'd stay cautious on this view and break of 17399.01 would signal near term reversal.
On the data front, UK Gfk consumer sentiment was unchanged at 0 in March New Zealand NBNZ business confidence dropped to 3.2 in March. Eurozone will release CPI flash later today while Germany will releae unemployment. UK will release Q4 GDP final, mortgage approvals, M4, current account and index of services. Canada will release GDP. US will release jobless claims and Chicago PMI.