Stocks Hold Gains, but the Path Forward May Get Considerably Harder

Published 03/18/2025, 01:42 AM

Stocks finished higher on the day but gave back some gains by the close. The next couple of days are likely to be tricky, given the BOJ meeting today and the Fed meeting on Wednesday. Both are important in different ways, but at this point, I believe the Bank of Japan’s meeting will be more significant due to its potential impact on USD/JPY and its recent correlation with the S&P 500.

Part of the S&P 500’s rebound over the past two days has been driven by a weaker yen. Technically, the 149 level has been a key area of support and resistance, and the SPX’s next move may depend on what happens at that level.USD/JPY-1-Hour Chart

The S&P 500 tested the 10-day exponential moving average yesterday and ended the session around that level.S&P 500-Daily Chart

The Nasdaq 100 faced the same point of rejection yesterday as the S&P 500. For both indices, the 10-day exponential moving average has acted as a resistance level during the decline. A break above this moving average would be a bullish signal, at least in the short term, if sustained.Nasdaq 100-Daily Chart

The US dollar looks quite weak at this point, appearing ready to break lower and drop below 103, potentially heading back to 100. It has been resting on support and consolidating there for the past few days.US Dollar Index-Daily Chart

The weaker dollar is impacting commodity prices, with copper surging nearly 2% yesterday. More importantly, it appears to be on its way to $5.10 at some point.Copper Futures-Daily Chart

This higher increase in copper appears to be coming when inflationary pressures are already building and continuing.

The Empire State Prices Paid Index rose again in March, as noted in yesterday’s report. It likely won’t be long before these higher prices appear in the PPI report.US Economic Indicators

I will note that this is happening at a time when oil is still trading at a fairly low level. I will also point out that oil still can’t manage to break below that $66 level. Someone clearly doesn’t want oil prices going any lower.Crude Oil-Daily Chart

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