In the end it wasn’t so orderly, but we now have indices trading at levels previously enountered last spring.
For the S&P 500, losses on the weekly time frame undercut the midline of stochastics, so while we have an opportunity for a defensive rally from Friday’s close, we are only looking at the start of a more secular decline, something more inline with 2022 when the index tested its 200-week MA.
The Nasdaq is heading towards its 200-week MA, although it hasn’t yet tested the 2024 low from the summer. As with the S&P 500, we look to 2022 for guidance as to what might happen next. The 15,000 level, while an important psychological area for support, is close enough to the swing high of 2021 for buyers to emerge.
The Russell 2000 (IWM) reached its (third) measured move target on higher volume distribution. If it is to get there, then the 2023 swing low is next.
Since we are in definitive crash watch territory, we need to monitor levels that correspond to market extremes. These are the tables you find below every blog post.
A Strong buy occurs at the "5% level"; this is the level that must be breached for price action to reach 5% of historic extremes dating back to 1929 for the S&P 500, 1971 for the Nasdaq, and 1987 for the Russell 2000. It’s a measured loss relative to the 200-day MA; 5,161 for the S&P, 15,194 for the Nasdaq, and $184.71 for the Russell 2000 ($IWM). As of Friday’s close, we have reached these levels across the board, meaning we have a "strong buy" in place.
When we consider the 1% level (ie. prices have reached extremes not seen in 99% of historic price action), we have 4,550 in the S&P, 13,055 in the Nasdaq, and $159.07 in the Russell 2000 ($IWM). And while we are not there yet, we are getting close. If we do get there, don’t be afraid to buy with confidence, you will be richly rewarded in the years ahead.