Charts Weaken As SPX 12 Month Forward Earnings Estimates Rise
All the major equity indexes closed lower yesterday with negative internals on the NYSE while NASDAQ internals were mixed. Trading volumes were heavy in both exchanges. The charts saw several violations of near-term uptrends while one index has now turned negative. And while the charts weakened, there was not much change in the cautionary signals coming from the data dashboard. Yesterday’s notable declines still left the 1-day McClellan OB/OS Oscillators neutral while the sentiment indicators continuer to imply an excess of bullish sentiment. As well, although the forward 12-month consensus earnings estimates for the SPX saw a nice lift, valuation continues to appear extended. So, in our opinion, the charts slipped enough to become more in concert with the cautionary data, causing us to change our near-term outlook for the equity markets from “neutral” to “neutral/negative”.
On the charts, all the major equity indexes closed lower yesterday with generally negative internals on heavy trading volumes.
- Damage to the charts came in the form of the SPX (page 2), DJI (page 2), COMPQX (page 3), NDX (page 3), MID (page 4) and VALUA (page 5) all closing below their near-term uptrends lines and are now neutral.
- As well, all were confirmed with bearish stochastic crossover signals.
- And while all those just listed held support, the same is not true for the DJT (page 4) that closed below its support level and is now in a near term downtrend. We would also not that, in our experience, the DJT has frequently worked as a leading index. Whether that is the case this time is yet to be seen.
- Cumulative breadth is neutral on the All Exchange and NASDAQ and positive on the NYSE.
The data is still sending some cautionary signals.
- While the 1-day McClellan OB/OS Oscillators remain neutral (All Exchange: -38.71 NYSE: -42.3 NASDAQ: -37.2) despite yesterday’s notable weakness, the psychology data and valuation continue to suggest risk levels remain elevated.
- The Open Insider Buy/Sell Ratio (page 9) is neutral at 36.7 as insiders did some buying of the weakness.
- However, the leveraged ETF traders, measured by the detrended Rydex Ratio (contrarian indicator), saw the leveraged ETF traders increase their leveraged long exposure to a bearish 1.32.
- As well, this week’s Investors Intelligence Bear/Bull Ratio (contrary indicator page 9) was little changed at a bearish 20.8/62.4 while the AAII Bear/Bull Ratio also saw little change at 23.43/43.53. In our opinion, they suggest bullish sentiment remains excessive.
- The forward 12-month consensus earnings estimate from Bloomberg saw a jump to $165.79. However, valuation remains extended with a SPX forward multiple of 22.3 while the “rule of 20” still finds fair value of 19.1.
- The SPX forward earnings yield is 4.48% with the 10-year Treasury yield at 0.92%.
In conclusion, the charts saw enough deterioration yesterday, when combined with the data, that warrants a change in our near-term outlook for equities from “neutral” to “neutral/negative”.
DJI: 30,209/NA
COMPQX: 12,700/NA
NDX: 12,650/NA
DJT: 11,974/12,370
MID: 2,222/2,312
RTY: 1,840/2,010
VALUA: 7,712/7,920