Data & Valuation Imply Short-Term Risk Is Elevated
All the major equity indexes closed higher Monday with positive internals on the NYSE and NASDAQ as trading volumes rose from the previous session on heavy trading volume. All closed at or near their intraday highs. Multiple indexes made new all-time closing highs. However, the data and valuation, in our opinion, are now at levels suggesting near-term risk has become more elevated, should negative news hit the tape. So, while the charts remain bullish and have yet to generate any sell signals, the data and valuation imply a weakening of the market’s “shock absorbers” to a point where near-term risk mat be outweighing reward. Thus, we are shifting our near-term outlook for the equity markets from “neutral/positive” to “neutral”.
On the charts, all the indexes closed higher yesterday with positive internals on the NYSE and NASDAQ as trading volume rose from the previous session.
- All closed near their intraday highs with the SPX (page2), DJI (page 2), DJT (page 4), MID (page 4), RTY (page 5) and VALUA (page 5) posting new all-time closing highs.
- All remain in short term uptrends and above their 50 DMAs.
- No sell signals have been generated although the bulk of the stochastic readings are overbought.
- Market breadth remains positive with the cumulative advance/decline lines for the All Exchange, NYSE and NASDAQ positive and above their 50 DMAs.
The data, however, has increased its cautionary message to a point that suggest near-term market risk has become elevated.
- The 1-day McClellan OB/OS Oscillators moved deeper into overbought territory with the NYSE’s being very overbought (All Exchange: +87.13 NYSE: +100.94 NASDAQ: +76.67).
- The Open Insider Buy/Sell Ratio (page 9) moved dropped to neutral at 26.1 but has not broken its recent downtrend as insiders had been increasing their selling activity as the rally progressed.
- Meanwhile, the Rydex Ratio, (contrarian indicator) remains bearish at 1.09 as the leveraged ETF traders remain leveraged long.
- As such, the insider/Rydex comparison remains cautionary.
- Also, this week’s Investors Intelligence Bear/Bull Ratio (contrary indicator page 9) saw a decline in bearish advisors as bullish sentiment increased and remains bearish at 196.4/59.2. The same dynamic was registered on the AAII Bear/Bull Ratio at 28.69/43.02.
- The valuation gap appears quite extended with the SPX forward multiple rising to 22.9 with consensus forward 12-month earnings estimates from Bloomberg of $158.19 while the “rule of 20” finds fair value at 19.1.
- The SPX forward earnings yield is 4.36% with the 10-year Treasury yield at 0.91%.
In conclusion, while the charts remain positive, the market’s overbought conditions combined with sentiment and valuation levels suggest to us that near-term risk has become elevated to a point worthy of shifting our near-term outlook from “neutral/positive” to “neutral”.
SPX: 3,522/NA
DJI: HVS28,440/NA
COMPQX: HVS11,477/11,958
NDX: HVS11,611/12,185
DJT: HVS11,603/NA
MID: HVS2,010/NA
RTY: 1,700/NA
VALUA: HVS6,683/NA