Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) insiders are selling stock, and the data is worrisome. InsiderTrades tracks 56 trades in the 90 days leading into mid-February and 189 over the trailing twelve months, with activity ramping sequentially in 2024 and into Q1 of 2025.
That says something because Q1 is only half over, and the stock’s meteoric rise could keep the insiders liquidating. Meta Platforms’s stock price is up 100% in just over a year after about 250% in the 12 months preceding, presenting quite an opportunity for capital gains.
Mark Zuckerburg Unloads Billion in Meta Shares
Among the most troubling details is that CEO Mark Zuckerberg leads the pack, having sold more than $2 billion and growing. However, the insiders still own nearly 14% of the stock and have considerable skin in the game. Their sales are troubling, but they align with share-based compensation and should be expected with the high stock price. Other mitigating factors include the company’s stock repurchase program, which is solid and expected to strengthen over time. It reduced the share count by 1.2% year-over-year for Q4 and 0.6% for the year, offsetting dilution and driving shareholder leverage.
Institutions are another mitigating factor. The balance of their activity was mixed quarterly in 2024 but netted shares for the year, including gains in Q1 and Q4. The buying trend continued into Q1 2025, and their ownership is nearly 80%, providing a tailwind to offset insider selling.
The tailwind is strong because institutions and insiders leave only about 5% of shares for retail traders accumulating the stock.
Analysts' trends point to higher prices for this tech stock, so insider selling is likely not a significant concern. It may lead to short-term periods of volatility, including minor price pullbacks, but those are likely buying opportunities that will lead to higher prices. The trends in 2025 include firm sentiment, a Moderate Buy rating with a bullish bias, and a rising consensus price target.
The bias is bullish because 37 of the 43 analysts tracked by InsiderTrades peg the stock at Buy or higher, nearly 80%, and the price target revision trend. The consensus price target assumes fair value near $715, but it is up 10% in the two weeks since the Q4 release, with recent targets leading to the $800 to $900 level. That is a gain of 12% at the low end and a new all-time high.
Meta’s Business Results Drive Bullish Market Sentiment
The reason for the stock price increase is the results. Meta Platforms is maturing into a blue-chip tech company that can stand the test of time. The year of efficiency in 2023 led to the year of AI in 2024, which combined to improve user metrics, impressions, and revenue per ad in addition to operational quality. The net result is double-digit revenue growth, widening margins, and an outlook for sustaining those trends. Investments in AI cut into the cash flow in 2025 but do not impact the capital return outlook and will likely drive accelerated growth in coming quarters.
Meta Platforms stock trades at a premium to the S&P 500 but at a discount to its blue-chip tech peers. The multiple in mid-February is about 28x earnings, with the P/E ratio falling below 25x by 2026 and to 15x or lower by 2030. In this scenario, the stock price could double to align its value with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). Until then, investors can bank on Meta’s dividend. Meta’s yield isn’t robust, but neither is the payout ratio, which suggests that robust distribution increases are possible and can be sustained for years. The opportunity for investors is annual distribution growth to compound shareholder returns and provide additional strength to market tailwinds.
The stock price action in early 2025 is bullish. The market for META stock is rising, forming a strong-looking flag pole that may result in a consolidation. The market could continue to move higher in that scenario, gaining an amount equal to flagpole within a similar. Assuming a new high in Q1 2025, META stock could rise by $115 to the $830 region by mid-year. 