There are few things market watchers love more than trying to predict the end of significant trends. To slightly twist the popular phrase, analysts have successfully predicted twenty of the last five bear markets. Whenever there is a slight wobble in stock markets, it doesn't take too long for the doomsayers to start queuing up to say that this time, absolutely, definitely is the top.
Given the volatility in stock markets at the start of 2022 - and let's not forget, we are only a couple of weeks into the year - it is perhaps not surprising that those of a bearish disposition are wondering whether finally, this is their year.
In the first week of January, the NASDAQ had its biggest one-day fall since February 2021 and this week saw it fall to its lowest levels since mid-October last year. At one point this week, it was down almost 10% from the November 2021 high, leading to media headlines of this being "official" correction territory.
It is essential to keep a sense of perspective here. First of all, I don't think there's any officially sanctioned definition of what is and what isn't a correction, so let's not get too carried away with some arbitrary number. And it is only ten days ago that the NASDAQ's broader-based sibling, the S&P 500, hit fresh all-time highs. In light of this, perhaps it is too early to call for the death of stocks' excellent bull run.
But investors have started the year more nervous than we have seen for some time, based on the volatility we see in the stock market indices. One measure of this is the VIX - the options volatility index, often casually referred to as the Fear Index.
This has jumped at various points this month - but only back to mid-December levels. While stock markets are undoubtedly jittery at the start of 2022, calls for an imminent market crash may be somewhat premature for now.