Markets and investors worldwide were confused by the "takes a lot" of Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell's speech following the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) policy announcement, in which interest rates were raised by 75 basis points (bp), in the range of 3.75% - 4%, according to the American bank Goldman Sachs. The FOMC signaled a slower rate hike starting in December, but Powell forecasted a higher-than-expected 2023 peak. In particular, American policymakers sent a strong signal that they are likely to slow down the rate of interest rate increases to 50 bp in December.
In his press conference, Chairman Powell said that a slowdown is likely to be the appropriate solution because the level of interest rates is now much higher, and the cumulative tightening is significant. The size and timing of its effect on the economy are uncertain. None of these points will change until the December meeting. Powell said he "never thought" about stopping the rate hike.
Although a slowdown to 50 bp in December now looks likely, the Fed chairman left some uncertainty about what comes next, saying a slowdown could come "as soon as the next meeting or the one after that." He also noted that while the plan is to end the current cycle of hikes at a "fairly restrictive" level, there is "significant uncertainty" about the funds’ rate level.
Finally, Powell noted that FOMC participants would record new funds rate forecasts in December and likely update them based on incoming data. As a result, the bond market discounted somewhat higher odds of a 50 bp rise, rather than a 75 bp rise in December, and further tightening in 2023.
Markets, on the other hand, experienced ups and downs, before and after the Fed’s chairman speech last Wednesday, so on a weekly basis, S&P 500 lost -3,25%, Dow Jones Industrial Average -1,83%, Nasdaq Composite -5,97%, whereas DAX gained +1,63%.