The U.S. dollar fell against most major currencies, due to weaker U.S. economic data and a rise in the euro, following comments from European Central Bank policymakers that favour a stricter monetary policy.
The U.S. dollar index, fell by 0.33% to 93.54. U.S. worker productivity rose more slowly than analysts had anticipated in the first-three months, easing expectations for stronger labor market growth which had followed the release of an upbeat jobs data released Friday.
The dollar was also pressured by a surge in EUR/USD as European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers boosted expectations for a tightening of monetary policy in the near future.
USD/CAD fell 0.35% to 1.2925, amid reports US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin urged President Trump to exempt Canada from steel and aluminium tariffs.
According to market analysts, ahead of the 24 June Turkey elections, the central bank will likely want to avoid further drop in the lira as it will reflect negatively on the government. As such, higher rates are expected as they will help stabilize USDTRY.
Bitcoin prices rose on Thursday, while Ethereum and Ripple also gained more than 1% even though Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) has rejected the application of a cryptocurrency exchange to operate in the country for the first time, while U.S.-based investment company Fidelity Investments has begun internal discussions on hiring for a new cryptocurrency exchange.
For Thursday, the UK will be releasing the housing price index Halifax HPI m/m, Italy will announce retail sales data and the EU will produce a revised quarterly EU GDP report. Later in the day, US unemployment claims, consumer credit and natural gas storage data are due.
Markets are also looking ahead to the Group of Seven (G7) on June 8 and 9 in Canada where U.S. President Donald Trump will be meeting his Canadian and French counterparts at the summit to discuss trade issues.
EUR/USD
The euro continues to trade near two-week highs on Thursday, on rising speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) may soon announce a reduction of its bond purchase program.
ECB chief economist Peter Praet said on Wednesday the central bank would next week debate whether to cut bond purchases gradually, Reuters reported. The single currency was also bolster by falling political uncertainty in Italy.
The dollar on the other hand received some pressure from an announcement by Mexico, saying it will impose $3 billion in tariffs on U.S. imports in response to the US duties on steel and aluminium.
Data on EU GDP, US unemployment and consumer credit will be in focus for today while investors will be looking ahead next week’s FOMC statement and to the Group of Seven (G7) summit on June 8 and 9.
Pivot:1.176Support:1.1761.17351.171Resistance:1.1831.18551.1875Scenario 1:long positions above 1.1760 with targets at 1.1830 & 1.1855 in extension.Scenario 2:below 1.1760 look for further downside with 1.1735 & 1.1710 as targets.Comment:the RSI shows upside momentum.
Gold
Gold prices continue to trade right below the $1,300 level, with small fluctuations, as investor look for signs that could change expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve later this month.
Further pressure came as geopolitical tensions in East Asia continued to ease. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is meeting U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday and Friday at the White House ahead of the upcoming North Korea Summit scheduled next week in Singapore.
Meanwhile, the precious metal is supported by recent weakness in the dollar with the focus now shifted towards fundamentals with no significant price catalysts expected for this week.
Pivot:1300.5Support:1293.512901287.5Resistance:1300.513031306.5Scenario 1:short positions below 1300.50 with targets at 1293.50 & 1290.00 in extension.Scenario 2:above 1300.50 look for further upside with 1303.00 & 1306.50 as targets.Comment:the RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.
WTI Oil
Oil prices rose on Thursday following a drop in Venezuelan exports, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Crude Oil WTI Futures for July delivery were trading at $65.03 a barrel at 04:10 GMT, up 0.46% for the day.
Wednesday’s inventory report showed a rise by 2.072 million barrels for the week ended June 1, confounding expectations for a draw of 2.000 million barrels, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Markets continued to fear OPEC, at its meeting on June 22, as it could ease production cuts to offset falling supplies in Venezuela and an expected drop in Iran oil exports as U.S. sanctions loom.
Pivot:65.55Support:64.564.263.65Resistance:65.556666.65Scenario 1:short positions below 65.55 with targets at 64.50 & 64.20 in extension.Scenario 2:above 65.55 look for further upside with 66.00 & 66.65 as targets.Comment:the RSI is mixed to bearish.
US 30
The major U.S. stock indices ended higher on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones posting a 300 points rise, recording its best daily gain since mid April. Gains in bank shares amplified a broad-market run-up that has been supported by gains in internet and technology shares.
The S&P 500 index advanced 0.9% at 2,772, and the Nasdaq recorded its third straight all-time closing high and its fourth consecutive advance. Market participants attributed Wednesday's rally to rising government bond rates, with yields for the 10-year Treasury bond climbing to 2.97% from 2.91% on Tuesday.
This tends to benefit the business of financials, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS). and JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM)., which both ended the session higher.
The coming days involve many other important catalysts for prices, including the Fed statement next Wednesday, a meeting between Trump and Kim Jong-Un on June 12 and developments in US trade relations.
Pivot: 24970 Support: 24970 24875 24730 Resistance: 25250 25390 25500 Scenario 1: long positions above 24970.00 with targets at 25250.00 & 25390.00 in extension. Scenario 2: below 24970.00 look for further downside with 24875.00 & 24730.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI shows upside momentum.