Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors experienced a difficult 2022 and hope for positive developments in 2023. The EV giant is expected to announce its quarterly delivery numbers on Monday. Based on the estimates of 24 major brokerage firms, it is anticipated that Tesla will report around 420,000 units delivered in the quarter.
According to financial data company FactSet, there are over 40 analysts who follow and cover Tesla stock. The average estimate among these analysts is approximately 425,000 units for the quarter. In recent weeks, there has been a downward trend in delivery estimates. The initial projection for the fourth quarter was around 450,000 units but has since decreased to around 430,000 units, as recorded by FactSet.
It is expected that if Tesla announces delivery figures close to 420,000 units, investors will receive this positively. In the past, when Tesla has exceeded delivery expectations, the company's stock has generally performed well in the time period between the release of delivery results and the subsequent release of complete quarterly results a few weeks later.
In contrast, the opposite can occur when delivery results fall short of expectations. Analysts estimated that Tesla would deliver approximately 358,000 units in the third quarter, but the company only delivered 343,830 vehicles. As a result, Tesla's stock saw a decrease of approximately 16% between the release of delivery results and the subsequent release of earnings on October 19th. In comparison, the S&P 500 index rose about 3%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose around 1% over the same time period.
In 2022, Tesla stock faced its worst annual decline on record, losing around 65% to trade at 22 times the estimated earnings per share of $5.60 for 2023. It is anticipated that earnings in 2023 will grow approximately 40% from the approximately $4 per share earned in 2022. According to analysts, Tesla is expected to experience approximately 40% growth in deliveries in 2023, with a projected range of 1.8 to 1.9 million vehicles delivered. This is an increase from the roughly 1.3 million cars delivered in 2022.
If Tesla is able to meet its delivery estimates for 2023, it will likely help to build confidence among investors that the company's earnings estimates for the year are reliable and that the stock may have been undervalued in the past year.
It is currently too early to accurately predict the performance of Tesla stock in 2023. However, the first indications for the new year will be available soon.