“When I look back on all these worries, I remember the story of the old man who said on his deathbed that he had had a lot of trouble in his life, most of which had never happened.”
– Winston Churchill
In the money management industry, the holy grail is beating the market over a long period of time. By market, I should be more specific, meaning a broader index that represents the overall market. For most practitioners, the common reference point in this regard is the S&P 500 Index. There are other indexes that can be used as a proxy for pieces of the market or the overall market as well, including the Wilshire Index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ, the MSCI Index (Global International Markets), and dozens of specific country indexes. Outcomes are very important in the industry, especially if you are trying to land massive institutional accounts like pension funds, endowments, or foundations.
Big money has plenty of options to choose from, including venture capital, hedge funds, and private equity, as well as commodity-based funds or other alternatives like real estate, and option based trading. Plenty of alternatives, you see, just like colors of underwear or grocery shopping at the local supermarket. In addition, those with the big dollars ain’t exactly stupid, far from it. They are quite knowledgeable about the market and are looking for situations that fit for them. In many cases, they use broad market indexes for specific equity exposures and cherry pick what managers they want to use for other investments. It makes perfect sense that they are going to choose managers and funds that they believe will do better than the market, and achieve, yes, the holy grail.
In this quest, many investors become quite concerned about performance versus the market. Most firms will trot out their literature about their results, and the general consensus for consultants (of the big money) is to look for a repeatable process to best give one a chance for long term success. Of course, what exactly is in the process might be of note. My own thinking is focusing on results is generally not a good use of time. Regarding the process, it is important to know exactly how you want to invest, why, and what is involved. In order to keep things simple, narrowing down the important pieces of your analysis in terms of the business, competition, management, growth opportunities, and financial condition gives you plenty of information to consider. You and I want to own the best situations we can, just like the big institutions do. In a few years, think three, five, or ten, you will know how effective the analysis was and your returns will be a byproduct of those decisions. In the meantime, every day, week, quarter, and year, there will be all kinds of fluctuations and events which affect the market and its thousands of indexes. As the legendary Mr. Churchill points out, those who predict doom and difficulty quite frequently are disappointed (in a good way).
In the markets this week, declining bond yields continue to concern the investment community, especially those negative yields on the global stage. Dave and Buster’s missed their number, and Broad com warned about a slowdown in chip-land, so the tech indexes were hit with that joy. Restoration Hardware displayed its strength, while Famous Nathan’s showed that consumers still enjoy the simplicity of a good old fashioned hot dog. In the energy space, concerns over a buildup of inventories and slowing global growth were a drag on prices, while the spat in the Straits of Hormuz lent support. In the preview section, next week will be the Fed announcement on interest rates with most analysts expecting a pass by Mr. Powell with a strong indication that if data continues to weaken, July cuts are on the table. All things considered, with the weather heating up and no end in site on trade and tariff issues, oil weakness, and the strength of the global economy ebbing, if one wants to focus on problems, there are a few to pick from, for sure.