Global Stock Index Performance Rotation In One Chart

Published 04/06/2015, 11:29 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
US500
-
JP225
-
DX
-
STOXX
-
MSCIEF
-
MIWD00000PUS
-

For global equity investors what worked so well last year is struggling to work this year. Last year, the S&P 500 was the place to be. It gained nearly 11.5%. The Dow Jones STOXX 600 was up 4.3%. The MSCI World Index which covers the developed markets rose just shy of 3%. The MSCI Emerging Markets equity index lost 4.6%.

This year is a dramatically different story. As this Great Graphic, composed on Bloomberg shows, the Dow Jones 600 has exploded (fuchsia line), rising a little more than 16% in Q1 15.
MXWO
The MSCI Emerging Market equity index (yellow line) has come on strong in the past couple of weeks. It has now recouped everything it lost last year plus a little more (5.25% year-to-date). Bloomberg, citing its own data, reports that shows $561 mln went into emerging market ETFs in the week to April 3 on top of $490 mln the previous week. China and HK accounted for about 60% of this. It was the third consecutive week of inflows.

The MSCI World Index (white line) has matched last year's performance. It has risen almost 3.2% this year. It has been held back by US stocks. The S&P 500 (green line) is up a little more than 1% this year, counting today's 0.75% gain as this note is being composed. Of the major markets, Italy edges out Germany (22.6% vs 22.05%), followed by the France's nearly 19% gain, and the Nikkei's 11.2% rise.

The negative deposit rate at the ECB (and several other European central banks) and knock-on effects on the yield curves, coupled with ECB asset purchases, have driven investors into European shares. Nearly dollar for dollar, money that has taken profits on US equity funds have moved into European equity funds this year. The wide gap between US and European valuations considerably narrowed in recent months. There has been much interest in currency hedged European equity vehicles. The tightening of swap rates and our anticipation of a consolidative-to-weaker US dollar, after a strong advance in Q1 suggests tactical currency hedgers may want to reduce hedges here at the start of Q2.

Japanese shares have been bolstered by the BOJ's purchases of ETFs and REITs as part of its quantitative easing program. Since the BOJ's surprise announcement at the end of last October to increase its monetary base target to JPY80 trillion from JPY60 trillion, the Nikkei has risen by more than 26%. In addition, Japan's largest pension fund has indicated it is in the process of shifting funds away from the JGB market and toward domestic stocks (and foreign assets). Many other pension funds are thought to be taking similar actions.

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.