Gold Market Update

In our last update, we noted that the 1850 level that coincided with the upper boundary of the downtrend channel had been broken and successfully back tested and that it appeared that the powerful rally had moved into a higher gear. The gold price was flying higher with barely a noticeable pullback in May. Gold had broken through 1900 and the next level in the crosshairs was the January 2021 high at 1960.

Since that update, gold ran into resistance just above 1900 and after several unsuccessful attempts to break through and on to higher prices, a sharp sell off was seen in mid-June, with the gold price falling by $150 in a couple of weeks.

This dramatic sell off has stalled in recent days but prices remain subdued near the lows and the bounce has so far been extremely weak. The gold price is now below both the 89 day Moving Average at 1790 and the 55 day Moving Average at 1824, with the 89 day Moving Average now providing short term resistance. The 233 day Moving Average at 1853 is now strong resistance, in the short term the 55 day Moving Average at 1824 would be an ideal point to add to short positions on any rally.

Equities continue to grind higher, fuelled by unprecedented amounts of financial stimulus and liquidity and record low interest rates and continue to make all-time highs on a regular basis.

After a pullback this month that found support at the 89 day Moving Average, the Dow is currently at 33890, just 3% below the all time high of 35092 set last month and the S&P 500 is currently at 4236, just a few points below the all-time high of 4267 achieved last week.

Oil prices pulled back to $57 after making new multi year highs around $68 a barrel at the start of March, though have now resumed their rally and are well above $70 a barrel. Our current target for oil is $80.

In gold, support can be found at 1760, 1725, 1695-1705, 1675-1680, 1650, 1610, 1565 and 1450. In the medium term, we still expect further gains in the gold price and would suggest a move towards 2350 in the second half of this year remains likely.
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​Short term resistance can be found at 1790, 1800-1810, 1824, 1845-1853, 1870, 1900-1910, 1925, 1960 and 2000. Gold needs to regain the key level at 1840-1850 to give the bulls the power to move back towards the all-time highs above 2000.