Gold's Growth Pauses Ahead of the NFP Report
Gold (XAU/USD) declined by 0.67% on Thursday as traders repositioned ahead of the US nonfarm payroll (NFP) report.
Yesterday's US Weekly Jobless Claims figures were higher than expected, suggesting that the labour market continued to cool, albeit slowly. The US Dollar Index (DXY) weakened immediately after the data release, but gold struggled to find support.
"We're in a period of stagnation, some range bound activity at the moment, searching for that next piece of data or that next stimuli that could push gold out of this range", said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.
Fundamentally, gold remains in a major uptrend as geopolitical uncertainty spurs safe-haven demand, while global central banks remain focused on cutting interest rates. The market currently prices in more than a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate reduction by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December. Gold, which offers no yield, usually performs well in a low-interest-rate environment.
XAU/USD was falling noticeably during the Asian and early European trading sessions but managed to recover by the early European trading session. Today, investors will monitor the US NFP report due at 1:30 p.m. UTC. Given its potential to influence interest rate expectations and investors' sentiment, we expect sharp price movements in XAU/USD. The forecast is for the number of jobs created to increase by 200,000 in November and hourly earnings to grow by 3.9% annually.
"A robust NFP number is more or less priced in, and if we see weakness in the report, it could add some support to gold prices", said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
If the NFP report reveals stronger-than-expected figures, XAU/USD may pull back noticeably.
Euro Gains Momentum, but Economic Concerns and NFP Risk Remain
On Thursday, the euro (EUR/USD) gained 0.72% against the US dollar (USD) after the worse-than-expected US Weekly Jobless Claims report pushed the greenback lower.
Michel Barnier, Prime Minister of France, officially resigned a day after opposition lawmakers voted to oust his government. In his address to the nation, French President Emmanuel Macron said he would name a successor to Barnier in the coming days and stressed that the 2025 budget will be his top priority. A genuine desire by Macron to swiftly appoint a new prime minister and find a quick way out of the political impasse reassured the investors.
"The market is looking at the financial implications of the French government's collapse. The takeaway seems to be that it's not as impactful to the spending plans as initially thought, and that's keeping the euro alive. However, we got two large economies within the eurozone with struggling governments: France and Germany and analysts are concerned about the euro, and they have already lowered their projections as a result", said Amo Sahota, executive director at FX consulting firm Klarity FX.
Overall, the outlook for the eurozone economy remains rather gloomy, even as yesterday's German factory orders were substantially higher than expected. A recent Bloomberg survey showed that economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates more rapidly than previously expected to support the struggling economy.
EUR/USD was falling during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's key event is the release of the highly anticipated US nonfarm payroll (NFP) report at 1:30 p.m. UTC. The market expects to see 200,000 new jobs added. If the figures are lower than expected, EUR/USD may rally strongly, possibly above the important 1.06440 level. Otherwise, the pair may drop towards 1.05320.
Bitcoin Broke Above $100,000 But Later Retreated
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) reached a new high yesterday, surpassing the $100,000 mark, driven by the appointment of a crypto-friendly chair for the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by President-elect Donald Trump.
Trump has selected Paul Atkins to succeed Gary Gensler, who implemented stringent regulations on digital assets. The President has promised to appoint regulators who are more accommodating to the digital asset industry and support the idea of making a strategic reserve in Bitcoin. Paul Atkins, a proven leader in implementing sensible regulations, believes in the potential of robust and innovative capital markets catering to investors' needs and providing capital to fuel the economy, said Trump on his Truth Social platform. Dan Gallagher, legal chief of Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD), has welcomed Atkins' appointment, describing him as the ideal candidate. Atkins has strongly support digital assets, making his appointment a positive development for digital currencies.
Later on Thursday, the price of Bitcoin dropped significantly, falling from its all-time high below $94,000 and then rebounding slightly towards around $97,000. This was in line with the overall performance of US stock markets, as the Dow Jones lost more than 0.5%, and both S&P 500 and NASDAQ lowered. MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR)—the largest institutional investor in Bitcoin—lost approximately 5%.
Many market participants believe that the true test for the recent rally in Bitcoin will occur when risk aversion increases and investors will shift towards safer assets, leading to a correction in stock prices. A Bloomberg report indicated that there has been an increase in demand for Bitcoin options, suggesting investors are seeking to secure some profits in case of a crypto market downturn. The report states that puts with strike prices of $95,000 and $100,000 currently have the highest number of open positions. Additionally, there has also been an increase in interest in puts with lower strike prices, such as $75,000 and $70,000.
BTC/USD recovered during Asian and early European trading hours from yesterday's decline. Today, market participants will wait for the US nonfarm payrolls report at 1:30 p.m. UTC. Higher employment numbers will put some pressure on BTC/USD, while weak labour data will favour the uptrend in the pair.