The great aspect when studying inter-market and cross-asset relationships is that there is always opportunity to be found. And, if there isn’t a trade in play, then there is always a set-up that requires close monitoring to achieve a higher probability outcome.
This is effectively what I have assessed in this video, with key technical set-ups in the S&P 500, Aussie SPI futures, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD. While I have looked at daily charts, which naturally take longer to play out and requires a degree of patience, the set-ups I focused on here give some fairly well-defined levels. These levels take on even more significance given the event risk in the form of U.S. CPI (tonight 00:30AEDT), the December ECB meeting (tomorrow 23:45AEDT) and EU/German manufacturing PMI (Friday).
In equity land, the S&P 500 is of most interest, with a focus on an upside break through 2702, or close through 2600. In turn, these breaks would flow through to other global markets, and should the bulls push the index through 2702 it could be the trigger for a seasonal rally in the ASX 200. As we can see, if I aggregate each individual annual performance of the ASX 200 over the past decade, we can see the seasonal patterns in the market, and it seems the 15th December is when the market historically tends to find buyers. While past performance doesn’t guarantee future returns, there can be method to the madness, especially when we know so many money managers on the active side chase performance if the market is going up and they are underinvested.
As mentioned, the EUR is a must-watch currency over the coming days, with the ECB set to announce the formal end to its asset purchase program. Recall, the ECB has made it clear the weakness in the European economy is transitory and expect a rebound in the data flow. With that in mind, it makes Fridays PMI data just that bit more important. Because, if we are going to see the anticipated rebound it needs to materialise soon and that should encourage EU shorts to part cover. It has also become apparent that traders are also focused on the France 10-Year / German 10-Year bond spread, with France in the spotlight as the next country to breach the EU’s ceiling of running a deficit above 3% of GDP.
I have also focused on the Brexit saga, which I am sure many of you are thoroughly over by now. The market is waiting for confirmation that 48 letters of no-confidence in Theresa May’s ability to lead have been submitted to the 1922 Committee and we get a leadership challenge. This shouldn’t come as a shock given the mess that UK political situation is in, where we see any clear path for May.
Should it transpire that we do get a vote on May’s leadership, then the choice is a vote for Dominic Raab or Boris Johnson to take a hard-line stance at the EU, and most likely steer the UK out of the EU and onto WTO tariffs with no deal. The alternative is to continue backing May and hope for a more moderate solution. It is now incredibly binary and if May wins a vote then GBP will rally hard.
However, if May does not get the gig, then it is almost inevitable the UK will crash out of the EU. The question, of course, is to what extent the GBP is already pricing that outcome.