Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of February 29th through March 4th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of February 29th through March 4th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Sunday, February 28th
9:30pm NZD ANZ Business Confidence 7.1 versus last 23.0. The currency rose.
11:50pm JPY Retail Sales -0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
Monday, February 29th
12:30am AUD Company Operating Profits -2.8% versus -1.7% expected. The currency rose.
7:00am EUR German Retail Sales 0.7% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 102.4 versus 99.1 expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals 5.3B versus 5.2B expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate -0.2% versus 0.0% expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate 0.7% versus 0.9% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD Current Account -15.4B versus -16.8B expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD RMPI -0.4% versus -3.2% expected. The currency fell.
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 47.6 versus 52.1 expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales -2.5% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
11:30pm JPY Household Spending -3.1% versus -2.5% expected. The currency rose.
Tuesday, March 1st
12:30am AUD Building Approvals -7.5% versus -2.9% expected. The currency rose.
12:30am AUD Current Account -21.1B versus -19.8B expected. The currency rose.
1:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 49.0 versus 49.4 expected.
1:00am CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 52.7 versus last 53.5.
1:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 48.0 versus 48.4 expected.
3:30am AUD Cash Rate 2.00% versus 2.00% expected. The currency rose.
3:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement: Governor Glenn Stevens noted that, “At today's meeting, the Board judged that there were reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy, with inflation close to target. The Board therefore decided that the current setting of monetary policy remained appropriate. Over the period ahead, new information should allow the Board to judge whether the improvement in labour market conditions is continuing and whether the recent financial turbulence portends weaker global and domestic demand. Continued low inflation would provide scope for easier policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand.” The currency rose.
4:30am USD FOMC Member Dudley said that, “The recent tightening of financial market conditions could have a greater negative impact on the U.S. economy should this tightening prove persistent and the continuing decline in energy and commodity prices may signal greater and more persistent disinflationary pressures in the global economy than I currently anticipate. I am closely monitoring global economic and financial market developments to assess their implications for my outlook and the balance of risks.” The currency rose.
8:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 54.1 versus 54.3 expected. The currency rose.
8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change -10K versus -10K expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 50.8 versus 52.3 expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 10.3% versus 10.4% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD GDP 0.2% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
2:26pm NZD GDT Price Index 1.4% versus last -2.8%. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 49.5 versus 48.5 expected. The currency rose.
Wednesday, March 2nd
12:30am AUD GDP 0.6% versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.
8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 2.2K versus 0.2K expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Construction PMI 54.2 versus 55.5 expected. The currency rose.
10:00am GBP MPC Member Broadbent said that, “Whether or not “digital currency” is the right way to describe something like bitcoin, or its central bank counterpart, is also unclear. A better term for the underlying technology, the distributed ledger, might be “decentralised virtual clearinghouse and asset register”. But there’s no denying the technology is novel. Prospectively, it offers an entirely new way of exchanging and holding assets, including money. It’s an irony, therefore, that some of the economic questions it raises have actually been around for a long time, for as long as economics itself. Some admirers of bitcoin see it as a means of bypassing central banks altogether.” The currency rose.
1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Payrolls 214K versus 185K expected. The currency fell.
2:00pm GBP MPC Member Cunliffe said that, “There is now an increasing amount of the housing stock owned by buy-to-let landlords ... The question is how do they behave if either they can't cover their interest costs because interest rates go up ... and how do they behave if house prices go down?" said Cunliffe, whose whose responsibilities include financial stability. There could be risks to financial stability because it starts a spiral of house price decline”. The currency rose.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 10.4M versus 2.5M expected. The currency fell.
Thursday, March 3rd
12:30am AUD Trade Balance -2.94B versus -3.22B expected. The currency rose.
1:45am CNY Caixin Services PMI 51.2 versus 52.6 expected.
8:30am GBP Halifax HPI -1.4% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Services PMI 52.7 versus 55.1 expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 278K versus 271K expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity -2.2% versus -3.2% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.4 versus 53.2 expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Factory Orders 1.6% versus 2.1% expected. The currency fell.
5:45pm GBP MPC Member Haldane said that, “It is time to rethink some of the basic building blocks of economics.” The currency rose.
Friday, March 4th
12:30am AUD Retail Sales 0.3% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD Trade Balance -0.7B versus -1.0B expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD Labor Productivity 0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings -0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls 242K versus 195K expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Trade Balance -45.7B versus -43.5B expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 4.9% versus 4.9% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 58.2 versus last 66.0. The currency rose.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Midly lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.09506 open to a 1.10105 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 113.803 open to 113.894 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.41574 open to a 1.42344 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 0.73678 open to 0.74227 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.34136 open to a 1.33364 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.67559 open to a 0.68011 close.
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.