The financial markets are rather quiet so far this week. The Dow was stuck in tight range overall night and ended nearly flat, down -9.82 pts to close at 16397.26. The S&P 500 dropped -0.26 pts to close at 1962.61. Both were close to record high. A little bit more volatility was found in treasury yield where 30 year yield dipped to 3.414 initially then recovered to close at 3.449, just down -0.003. 10 year yield also dipped to 2.590 initially but closed at 2.623, down -0.0001. The Dollar Index, continued recent consolidative trading from 81.02 and is now at 80.30 at the time of writing. In the currency markets, with the exception of Canadian dollar, most pairs are stuck in familiar range.
Main focus today is German Ifo. The business climate is expected to drop to 110.2 in June. Current assessment gauge is expected to rise slightly to 115.0 while expectation gauge is expected to drop to 105.9. We'd be cautious on downside surprises today, which could trigger some further weakness in the common currency. Also to be released in European session are Swiss trade balance and UK BBA mortgage approvals.
The main focus in US session is consumer confidence, which is expected to rise to 83.6 in June. The index was back above 80 level since March after hitting 83.9 and stabilized from there. The levels to watch are 80 and 83.9. Above 83.9 would possibly trigger some recovery in the greenback while below 80 could trigger mild weakness. Nonetheless, note that dollar is staying in tight range against European majors which could extend for a while. And any volatility would possibly be centered against commodity currencies. US will also release house price indices and new home sales.