T2108 Status: 65.7%
T2107 Status: 64.5%
VIX Status: 14.2
General (Short-term) Trading Call: cautiously bullish
Active T2108 periods: Day #76 over 20%, Day #75 over 30%, Day #72 over 40%, Day #6 over 50%, Day #5 over 60% (overperiod), Day #21 under 70% (underperiod)
Commentary
The general stock market is moving in slow motion. The S&P 500 (SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY)) has closed just below the 2100 mark for three straight days.
The S&P 500 (SPY) is lumbering heavily just under 2100.
The NASDAQ (PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ)) has fared a little better although its jet-packed momentum from mid-May has slowed down a bit.
The NASDAQ (QQQ) has jumped nearly straight up for two weeks.
I suspect the market is generally waiting for the outcome of the May U.S. jobs report. This report comes out on Friday, June 3rd and could confirm a July rate hike from the Fed. I do not know how to map out the market’s potential reaction because the current rally started with the release of the minutes of the last Fed meeting. These minutes essentially confirmed that the Fed is itching and ready to raise interest rates again. If the market is truly getting comfortable with the prospect of an imminent rate hike, then a poor jobs report may actually be interpreted as bad.
The volatility index inched upward this week. The move is barely worth mention except to point out that the recent lows once again failed to maintain a grip on the VIX for long.
The volatility index is making very tentative efforts to lift off recent lows.
T2108 closed at 65.7%. It is inching ever more closely to overbought status. T2107, the percentage of stocks trading above their 200DMAs, hit a new 21-month high at 64.5%. T2107 is getting ever closer to a downtrend line that has held since 2009. While the new high is very bullish, I am still cautious because T2107 will need to break this multi-year downtrend in order to release the S&P 500 to new (all-time) heights.
Can T2107 finally break out from its post-recession downtrend? Such a move would be VERY bullish!
While we wait for the jobs report to resolve the market’s next steps, here are a few charts of interest.
LendingClub Corp (NYSE:LC) has run into a major buzzsaw of scandal and questionable practices. However, the company appears to be on the road to cleaning house and repair. The stock chart shows a potential bottom with two high-volume gap ups from a small consolidation at the all-time low.
Buyers are starting to rush back into LendingClub (LC). Can this bottom hold?
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) finally ran out of some steam as its 200-day moving average (DMA) holds firm as resistance.
Netflix (NFLX) takes a well-deserved rest.
Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) made a new intra-day all-time high but pulled back. Adding to my sense of caution is trading volume: volume is shrinking on this straight-line rally from the May 19th low. This is a very critical juncture for AMZN.
Are buyers losing some enthusiasm for Amazon.com (AMZN)?
Speaking of straight lines, Pandora (P) has quietly gained almost every single day since a quick post-earnings sell-off that started the month of May. I finally started building a position today – I am very late to the game so I already have a plan to add to my position on lower prices. I basically have on a “no regret” position right now in case Pandora never delivers a buyable dip.
Pandora (P) has recovered from a nasty post-earnings fade.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) enjoyed a Buffett afterglow to hit $100. Like clockwork, sellers showed up at magic number resistance. The stock still sits comfortably in an uptrend from its recent multi-year lows; the upper-Bollinger Bands (BB) now define this trend. AAPL may now need a new catalyst to get over what looks like formidable resistance at its declining 50DMA.
Apple (AAPL) received a healthy boost of confidence from Warren Bufffett. Will it be enough to get over 50DMA resistance?
Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500
Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
Red line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)
Weekly T2108
Full disclosure: long NFLX put options, long SSO call options, long P call options