Landsec (LSE: LAND), the UK-based real estate company, has reported a strong performance in its recent earnings call, emphasizing strategic investments and a robust balance sheet. The company highlighted a 3.4% growth in like-for-like net rental income and a 3.9% increase in return on equity for the six months ending September. Landsec's strategic repositioning of its portfolio and a significant stake acquisition in Bluewater have led to raised EPS guidance for the full year.
The company's focus on sustainable office projects in London and a £1 billion investment in residential developments by 2030 underscores its commitment to long-term growth and market positioning.
Key Takeaways
- Like-for-like net rental income grew by 3.4%, and return on equity increased to 3.9%.
- Full-year EPS guidance raised, driven by portfolio repositioning and a £120 million Bluewater stake acquisition.
- Two London office projects underway, expected to yield over 7% upon completion.
- £1 billion investment planned for residential developments by 2030.
- Portfolio overall yield stable, with values up 0.9% and nearly £700 million in transactions.
- Loan-to-value ratio at 34.9%, with an average debt maturity of 10 years.
- EPRA earnings at the high end of expectations, with a 2.2% dividend increase.
Company Outlook
- Landsec is optimistic about future returns, especially in Central London, with rising rents.
- A pipeline worth over £2 billion is in place, with planning consent, focusing on residential developments.
- The company is actively investing in accretive CapEx projects, expecting IRRs in the mid-teens.
Bearish Highlights
- Softening yields noted in MediaCity and existing use values in Lewisham, Finchley Road, and Glasgow.
- A £31 million cost increase for the Timber Square project, although yield on cost remains strong.
Bullish Highlights
- Strong demand for high-quality office space, with occupancy at 97.9%.
- Positive retail performance with total sales up 2.2% and occupancy at 96%.
- Significant acquisitions like the Bluewater stake to capitalize on high-risk-adjusted returns.
Misses
- Gross rental income down £21 million due to asset sales, but like-for-like income up £7 million.
- Challenges in raising private capital for new developments, with a focus on retail investments.
Q&A Highlights
- Landsec aims for a portfolio allocation towards Central London of 55% to 60%, flexible based on market conditions.
- Equity issuance considered only for earnings accretive, high-quality asset acquisitions.
- Residential development to take a backseat to major retail investments in the short term.
- £135 million budget for greening the portfolio, aiming for 100% EPC A to B by 2030.
Landsec's recent earnings call has demonstrated the company's strategic focus on retail and residential developments, with a strong balance sheet and an active approach to portfolio management. While facing some challenges, the company is poised for continued growth and is well-positioned to leverage market opportunities in the real estate sector.
Full transcript - None (LSGOF) Q2 2024:
Mark Allan:
21 Moorfields: So owning the right real estate has never been more important. Irrespective of sector, there is a clear focus from customers on the best space and as supply of this space is limited, rents are growing. Our success in positioning Landsec for this is reflected in these positive results. Growth in like-for-like net rental income increased to 3.4%. Our return on equity for the six months September increased to 3.9% and we are today increasing our EPS guidance for the full year which also flows through into future years. Our active portfolio repositioning over the past year, our past few years means we continue to significantly outperform the wider market and we expect the trends which underpin this to persist. And we're also capitalizing on the substantial accretive growth potential that we've created. We acquired £120 million stake in Bluewater at an 8.5% yield in the first half and are confident of deploying more capital into major retail in the second half. We're on site with two highly sustainable London office developments which once completed and let will deliver a yield on cost of over 7%. And the progress that we've made on our residential pipeline means we now have visibility to investing over £1 billion into this structural growth sector by 2030. Our strategic focus is paying off, so we're well placed to grow our already attractive 5.8% income return at NTA and to deliver the 8% to 10% annual return on equity that we target over time. This positive outlook is underpinned by our strong operational performance. We continue to lease space ahead of ERV across our portfolio and we're driving positive reversionary potential on re-lettings and lease renewals with the reversionary potential in retail in particular continuing to grow. We have also further increased occupancy, which means our London portfolio is now virtually full whilst occupancy in retail is higher than it was before COVID. In terms of our future pipeline, we have started site preparations at Finchley Road and we signed a new development agreement at Mayfield which materially increases the residential component of that site. We also submitted an application for our residential masterplan at Lewisham recently. So combined, these three schemes offer the potential to deliver over 6,000 homes over the next decade, with a potential start on site of the first phases in just over a year's time. At the same time, the outlook for investment markets has improved. The sharp rise in inflation and interest rates that resulted in upward pressure on property yields over the prior two years has leveled off and we've seen a gradual increase in investor interest with selective competition for the best assets across each of our key sectors. The pace of recovery from here may be affected to some extent by long-term rates, but the overall trajectory remains upwards. We said in May that we expected yields to stabilize and values for the best assets to return to growth as rents rise, and that's what's happened over the past six months. Overall yields for our portfolio were stable. So with continued ERV growth, values were up 0.9% and we had an active period in terms of investment with nearly £700 million of transactions recycling capital where our ability to add further value was limited through £464 million of disposals and we reinvested £226 million in a number of our key places, principally in major retail with further progress in retail expected in the second half. Our balance sheet remains strong with a low net debt to EBITDA and a 34.9% loan to value and we extended our average debt maturity to 10 years. Maintaining our balance sheet strength remains a key priority, but given the attractive time in the cycle and our growing income profile, this does provide room for growth in the near-term. All this is reflected in a set of positive results for the first half. EPRA earnings were at the top end of our expectations with reduction versus last year reflecting lower surrenders as expected. Whilst our focus on like for like income growth and cost savings offset the impact of our £0.5 billion of net disposals over the prior 12 months. As we expect the benefits of this to persist, we raise our earnings outlook and now expect EPS this year to be in line with last year and for 2026 to be further ahead of that before any further acquisitions. Our dividend is up 2.2% in line with our guidance and with valuation yield stabilizing our NTA was up 1.4%. At the same time we continue to reduce our energy intensity by 2 percentage points, so we remain on track to reduce this by 52% versus our 201920 baseline and to do that by 2030 and 52% of our portfolio is now rated EPC A or B. That's up from 49% six months ago and that will grow further from next year onwards as the benefits of our net zero investment plan start to come through. So on to our operational review. Now, even though the principal use of our places differs across our business, the success of each comes back to our three competitive advantages; the high quality of our portfolio, the strength of our customer relationships and our ability to unlock complex opportunities. And it's these factors which support our continued outperformance and the future optionality that we created in our pipeline. And similarly, it's these factors which underpin our ability to drive further growth in income and in value over time, be that in office, retail or our future residential let places. In Central London, demand for the right assets in the right locations remains robust as customers remain firmly focused on the most sustainable space with good transport connectivity in locations that benefit from exciting amenity. Supply of this type of space is limited, so as a result, we have seen new record rents in our markets being achieved over the past few months, showing double digit growth from record rents set only a year ago. The strength of demand is also reflected in overall take up. Across the last 12 months, grade A take up was 14% ahead of the long-term average, even though overall take up was 6% lower. And the outlook for demand remains positive with space under offer across the market currently some 40% ahead of the long-term average. And in terms of our customers, we've continued to see further growth in the utilization of our offices. That's up 9% year-on-year, although the rate of growth will naturally slow as customers begin to get close to full capacity in their space. Meanwhile, customers are planning for more space per person than they did before the pandemic as they incorporate more collaboration, meeting or breakout space into their designs and all this translates into robust demand. Across the 31 leasing deals we signed over the past 12 months, we saw 12 customers take more space whilst only 6 took less and most of them by downsizing space that they had in locations other than ours. We had just three customers leave and that just totaled space of 20,000 square feet. So as our portfolio is effectively full, this positive demand continues to drive further rental growth. As a result, our leasing performance remains solid. We signed or are in solicitors hands on £16 million of lettings on average 3% ahead of ERV, with re-lettings and renewals on average 7% above previous rents. And we further increased occupancy now to 97.9%, significantly ahead of the wider London market. We've recently opened four new Myo locations, adding to our two existing ones. These are currently in lease up and are now 45% latter under offer with a further 20% in active negotiations. All-in-all, our successful leasing drove 2.2% ERV growth, which is on track against our guidance of low to mid-single digit growth for the full year. So, moving to retail, we continue to see strong demand for our space. In deciding where to invest in physical stores, the main focus from brands is on how they access the largest amount of potential retail spend. And the chart here on the left shows that the top 1% of all shopping destinations across the UK provide retailers with access to some 30% of all in-store retail spend across the country and that's effectively the same as the bottom 90% of all locations combined. And 95% of the destinations in that top 1% are major shopping centers such as Bluewater, City Centres such as Cardiff and Leeds, or outlets, i.e., the major retail destinations where we have focused our strategy. And the fact that about 90% of all UK stores opt, for example, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) or Inditex (BME:ITX) are located just in this 1% highlights that these are the preferred destination for brands. And the chart on the right shows that for the vast majority of brands, stores in major shopping centers and key City Centres are by far the most popular. This is where 76% of their stores are and this of course is where our assets are. So supported by longer dwell time and a higher footfall, sales densities in key shopping destinations such as ours are materially higher than all other retail formats, and that ultimately means they're the main focus for brands. And we continue to see this come through into positive demand for our space as brands continue to focus on fewer, bigger, better stores. The chart on the left shows that even though several brands have been reducing their overall number of stores, the average size of their remaining stores is up by around 20%. And we're capturing the benefits of this with several major new store openings across our portfolio, such as ZARA at Trinity, Sephora, Pull&Bear and BERSHKA at Bluewater and a number of major new lettings, including deals with Primark to double their space at White Rose in Leeds, JD (NASDAQ:JD) Sports to move from the High Street in Cardiff into a brand new store in our St. David Centre. And aside from demand for new brands, the combination of existing customers wanting more space or more stores in our destinations continues to drive rental growth as there is effectively zero new supply to meet this growing demand. And this supports our continued strength in operational performance. Total (EPA:TTEF) retail sales were up 2.2% and although footfall was down slightly, around half of this was due to the timing of Easter which fell in March this year. And despite some mixed weather in spring, conversations with our customers now suggest that outlook on trading remains very positive. And all this means our occupancy is now ahead of where it was before the pandemic at 96% whilst overall lettings were 7% ahead of ERV. Importantly, rental uplifts on re-lettings and renewals are continuing to grow, having turned positive last year. And we expect rent reversions to grow further over time. As major retail accounts for 30% of our rental income, this will have an increasingly significant impact on earnings growth going forward. ERVs were up 1.7% over the first six months and that's on track versus our full year guidance of low to mid-single digit growth, although value as assessments of ERV continue to trail actual leasing performance by quite some margin. Still for us like for like income growth is the more relevant measure and that's where we continue to show robust growth and where the outlook is positive. And all this underpins the attractive returns that we see from further investment in this sector with day one income yields of 7% to 8% and growing rents in the best locations. Values are roughly half of replacement cost. So we're not going to be seeing any new supply anytime soon. And whilst all assets in real estate need some level of investment over time, maintenance CapEx for the best retail destinations is low. The chart here on the right shows that we spent around £80 million of CapEx on our current portfolio over the past five years. That's around £15 million per annum. Around 45% of that spend was accretive linked directly to leasing deals that resulted in higher rents and tenants upsizing space requirements. A further one third of that spend was defensive related to repurposing space that was vacated by a number of major retailers that went into administration in the wake of the pandemic, such as Debenhams or Arcadia. But we're now at a point where repurposing former department store space is driving double digit IRRs and delivering rents well ahead of anything department stores ever paid. So that element of defensive spend is firmly behind us and that leaves us with just over 20% for normal maintenance spend on items that do not drive additional income and which have not been recharged to customers through service charge. At around £4 million per year, this equates to circa 20 basis points of current asset values which we consider to be relatively minimal. And we intend to invest more in accretive CapEx going forward as we now have a number of projects such as those examples on the bottom right which are expected to deliver IRRs in the mid-teens and with most of the space already pre-let a low risk yield on cost of around 10%. And even if we include all of the maintenance CapEx, our overall return on total CapEx is still expected to be around a 10% IRR. In terms of new investment in Central London, we're on site with our two schemes, one in Victoria, one in South Bank. Rents for the best space continue to grow and recently we've seen evidence elsewhere in Victoria of rents well over the £100 per square foot record that resets with our N2 [ph] project last year. This bodes well for Thirty High and we're also starting to see pre-let interest emerge for Timber Square. Although we typically assume the majority of our leasing, these are all multi-let assets will be happening post completion. Now whilst returns on both projects remain healthy, supply chains continue to be impacted to some extent by the effects of the spiking inflation a year or so ago. The cost of completing Timber Square has gone up by £31 million partly due to design changes that will drive additional rent, but also due to the insolvency of a subcontractor, so the overall yield on cost for that project is down by a circa 10 basis points over the period. And looking ahead, we have a potential future pipeline of over £2 billion, virtually all of which benefits from planning consent. This provides us with attractive optionality, so we'll continue to work on optimizing the risk return projects of that pipeline. In addition, we've made significant progress in terms of growing our residential pipeline as we've been refocusing our mixed use activities onto this sector over the past 12 to 18 months. At Finchley Road in Zone 2 of Central London, we're making some small changes to our existing planning consent and have started onsite preparations. So we now expect to start development of the first phase by 2026. At Mayfield next to Piccadilly Station in Manchester, we have recently agreed a new development strategy with our partners which effectively provides us with control over the opportunity to deliver 1,700 homes following the delivery of the first office let phase. This site already benefits from an outline planning consent and again the first residential development could start as soon as 2026. And lastly, after substantial local consultation, a few weeks ago we submitted our masterplan for delivery of 2,800 homes in Lewisham, South East London. And between those three projects we now have clear visibility on a pipeline of over 6,000 homes in vibrant, well connected locations, all of which can be delivered in smaller discrete phases. That means that CapEx commitments will be managed and phased, yet overall provides us with the potential to invest over £1 billion by 2030 and £3 billion over the next decade into this structurally supported growth sector, at attractive low double digit ungeared IRRs. Which brings me to capital allocation and our views on risks and returns. As I mentioned in May, the marked increase in cost of capital has clearly impacted the prospective returns of the investment opportunities available to us. Major retail still offers the best risk adjusted returns in our markets as income returns remain high and rents are demonstrably growing. We capitalized on this with the acquisition of further £120 million stake in Bluewater in the first half and are confident of deploying more capital in the second half. The outlook for prime London office assets is also more attractive than it was two or three years ago as rents for the best space continue to grow and yields look attractive in a historic context, albeit lower than in major retail. In terms of new office development, growing rents for prime space have to compensate for an increase in build costs and exit yields. And whilst development returns still offer a premium against standing assets, there is of course higher risk involved, requiring careful consideration. There is clear support from the new government to unlock urban residential development and whilst development returns are not dissimilar to offices, the risk profile here is arguably more attractive. Now, the first start of any of our residential schemes will be in early 2026, so given the attractive returns in retail at present, this will be our main focus in terms of investment in the short-term. I'll now hand over to Vanessa who will talk you through our financial results.
Vanessa Simms: Thank you Mark, and good morning. Our high quality portfolio continues to attract strong customer demand which is reflected in our positive financial performance over the first half. So let me take you through the headlines. Gross rental income reduced by £21 million to £302 million. But this was driven solely by our noncore asset sales and a reduction in surrender premiums as like for like income was up £7 million. I'll explain this in more detail in a moment. Our EPRA earnings per share were at the top end of expectations at 25 pence, driven by stronger than expected growth in like for like net rental income and further cost efficiencies. As momentum remains positive, we are raising our EPS outlook for the full year and our interim dividend is up 2.2% in line with our guidance. With continued growth in ERVs and a stabilization in yields, our portfolio valuation was up slightly and NTA per share rose 1.4%, which means we delivered a return on equity over the first half of 3.9%. Moreover, our balance sheet remains strong with LTV of 34.9% and net debt to EBITDA of 7.4 times. So turning to EPRA earnings in more detail, overall we have been a net seller of £0.5 billion of assets over the past year, which reduced net rental income by £20 million. After a number of years of elevated surrender premiums due to customers rightsizing their space requirements, we expect surrenders this year to reduce. And in the first half, fees were down £13 million [ph] to £4 million. The impact of disposals and lower surrenders was partly offset by our strong leasing, which showed £7 million growth in like-for-like income. There a couple of bad debts materially improved this year as we have recovered debts that were previously provided for across assets that used to be managed externally, and we now manage these in-house. In terms of earnings guidance, we expect this additional debt recovery to offset the fact that we now expect surrenders for the full year to be lower than we previously guided for. Our continued focus on improving efficiency reduced administrative expenses by 10%. We expect admin expenses for the full year to be comfortably below last year and to reduce further in 2026, but I'll come back to this later. Overall, our EPRA cost ratio reduced from 23% to 20.8%. And whilst this will increase very slightly in the second half due to seasonality, we expect this to remain in the low 20s. Finance costs increased by £3 million. So all of this means that EPRA earnings are at the top end of expectations at £186 million. In terms of like-for-like income, we delivered an increase in growth to 3.4%. We have captured positive uplifts on re-lettings and renewals, and we've increased occupancy by 80 basis points over the year. This was consistent across both key parts of our portfolio, with like-for-like income in London up 5.5% due to the positive growth in offices and a strong performance from Piccadilly Lights, whilst like-for-like income in Retail was up 3.1%. Back in May, we said that we expected like-for-like income growth for this year to be similar to last year's 2.8%. But given our strong performance to date, we now expect this to be closer to 4%. While the reported ERVs did not reflect the full upside potential, it is clear that we have now moved to positive reversions, especially in retail. This underpins our future income growth potential, especially as rental values continue to grow. So turning to our portfolio valuation. After two years of yield expansion, valuation yields stabilized over the first half and rental values are up a further 2.1% driven by successful leasing, which means that our overall portfolio value was up 0.9%. Our Central London portfolio was up 0.8%. Yields were virtually stable, and ERVs were up 2.2% which is on track versus our guidance of low to mid-single-digit growth for the full year. ERV growth was higher than the city this time at 5.3%, reflecting a number of asset management gains. Our West End assets remain virtually full and market rents have continued to reach new record recently, which bodes well for the upside in our portfolio. And the valuation of our major retail assets was up 2.8%, reflecting 17 basis points reduction in yields and 1.7% increase in ERVs. Again, on track versus our guidance of low to mid-single-digit growth for the full year. Given the high income yield and the fact that major retail assets of our quality require little maintenance CapEx, total returns remain very attractive and 6.8% over the first six months. Our mixed-use assets were down 3.7% in value driven by further yield softening in MediaCity as regional offices remain behind London in terms of improving investor sentiment. And we also saw some softening in the existing use values in Lewisham, Finchley Road and Glasgow. As Mark explained earlier, the attraction of Lewisham, Finchley Road sits in the significant residential potential. Whilst in Glasgow, we are already seeing strong interest from leading retailers in our plans to reposition the existing center. As we progress with these plans, we expect valuation for these assets to turn a corner in the next 12 months or so. And following the sale of hotels, our subscale assets are only 8% of overall portfolio and values were up 2%. Looking forward, we have started to see investment demand pick up for assets, which offer rental growth, as yields look attractive in real terms. And our outlook for ERV growth remains unchanged, which supports our outlook for property values. And this brings me on to our total return on equity which increase to 3.9% for the first six months. Our income return for the half year was 2.9%, whilst ERV growth delivered a capital return of 1.7%. This was broadly similar to previous periods. But over the last two years, all of this has been offset by adverse yield movements. With yields stabilizing over the first half, this chart shows that we are now well placed to deliver our target return on equity of 8% to 10% per annum. Building on our growing income return, which is 5.8% on an annualized basis. At the same time, our capital base remains strong. Our loan to value, net debt to EBITDA and interest cover are all effectively the same as they were in March. Acquisitions and CapEx have effectively offset the proceeds from disposals since then, partly as the sale of our hotel portfolio included a deferred payment of £50 million on which we received a 6% coupon. Adjusting for that, our LTV will be 50 basis points lower. We have also strengthened our financial position with the issue of £350 million 10-year bond at a 4.6% coupon. And we refinanced the £2.25 billion of revolving credit facilities at a low average margin of 65 basis points. As a result, we have no need to refinance any debt until 2027, and our average debt maturity is long at 10 years. So given where we are in the cycle, we would be comfortable to see LTV increase slightly towards the high 30s in the short-term for the right acquisition opportunities. But we intend to remain within our 25% to 40% target range and any increase from here would only be temporary as we will manage LTV back to the current levels in time. Despite a subdued activity level within the wider investment markets, we have had an active year so far with close to £700 million of transactions. We sold 5% of our portfolio in the first six months, broadly in line with book value, including the sale of our hotel portfolio. We invested £140 million of this into major retail destinations at an average 8% income yield. We expect this to deliver double-digit IRRs, and we are confident in deploying further capital into retail at accretive returns in the second half. Since the half year, we've also taken full control of MediaCity for a net consideration of £84 million. This involves a surrender of the EPRA leases. But adjusting for the value of this, the transaction was broadly in line with book value. And the acquisition is earnings neutral in the short term, but importantly, it provides us with the ability to implement our plans to real estate, including the future residential potential on the second phase. So in summary, we have had a positive start to the year and now expect like-for-like income growth for this year to be closer to 4%. And now more of this like-for-like income growth will translate to earnings growth due to our successful delivery of sustainable operating efficiencies, which has been our consistent focus over the past few years. You will recall that we have previously talked about how our investments into data and technology would improve our efficiency. So I'm pleased to say that we'll now see the benefits of this coming through. And following the 10% reduction in overheads costs in the first half, we are on track to deliver further savings into the next financial year, as the top right chart shows. So alongside further efficiency improvements. This means that more of our like-for-like income growth will flow through to earnings. And despite £0.5 billion of net disposals over the past year, the combination of higher like-for-like growth and lower costs means that we now expect our EPS for the full year to be in line with last year's 50.1p. This comfortably supports our aim to grow our dividend by a low single-digit percentage. And we expect this improvement to continue into future years with EPS 2026 expected to be ahead of 2025. This increased the guidance is before any potential benefit of future acquisitions. So overall, we are well place to deliver attractive return on equity over time. And with that, I'll now hand back to Mark.
Mark Allan: Thank you, Vanessa. So I'll now wrap up with our view on the current environment and what you can expect from us in the year ahead before we then move to Q&A. So our decisive portfolio repositioning over the past few years means that Landsec is well placed, and it has never been more important to own the right real estate. Last year political risks have increased, the general election over the summer here created an element of political stability, which has alluded to the UK for most of the past decade. We are, of course, alive to the risks that higher taxes could impact business sentiment, but we're not seeing any signs of this affecting occupational demand at this point. Our reversionary potential is growing as customer demand for the best space remains robust. And we still expect ERVs to grow by a low to mid-single-digit percentage across our portfolio. Meanwhile, investment market activity has started to pick up as yields have stabilized. Values for the best assets have returned to modest growth, supported by the good availability of credit. We're mindful that changes in long-term interest rates could impact the pace at which Momentum continues to build from here, but we're confident that the overall direction of travel is upwards. And we've created significant optionality, especially in residential, and our balance sheet remains strong, creating capacity to invest at an attractive point in the cycle. This means we have created clear growth potential, both in terms of continued like-for-like income growth as well as in terms of new investment. As such, our strategic focus is delivering and we expect to continue seeing the benefits of this over the next few years. So to summarize, we continue to build on the positive momentum in executing our strategy. We now expect like-for-like income growth to be higher than we initially envisaged, and our success in improving our operational efficiencies means more of this like-for-like growth drops through to EPS growth. Having sold 5% of our portfolio in the first half of the year, we intend to reimburse further capital in growing our major retail platform in the second half. Major retail now accounts for 30% of group rental income with reversion building. We'll continue to progress the growing residential opportunity in our pipeline, whilst we look to further optimize our overall return on capital employed and to focus our activities. We expect our attractive 5.8% income return at NTA to grow further as like-for-like growth and efficiencies drive EPS growth. So with continued rental growth and yield stabilizing, we're well placed to deliver attractive returns on equity. And with that, I will now open for Q&A. As usual, what I'll do is take questions here in the auditorium first before then going to those joining on the conference facility and then lastly on the webcast. We've got handheld roving mics. So I could ask you to raise your hand if you had a question and just wait for a microphone, and I'll start with Paul May down here in the front row.
Q - Paul May: Thank you very much. It’s Paul from Barclays (LON:BARC). Just a couple of questions from me. You mentioned a few times your strong balance sheet, I think, in a European context, in particular. But versus some U.S. peers, you're still seeing as overlevered based on net debt to EBITDA. Furthermore, given relatively higher marginal cost of debt isn't a lower net debt-to-EBITDA metric, more appropriate moving forward? Just wondering what your thoughts were on that. I think linked to that, you previously mentioned equity as an option to fund the expansion provided EPS accretive. I think that will be the case. I just want to see if that's still your thought process. And then second question, how do you manage the plan or how do you manage the impact on FY 2027, FY 2028 earnings? I appreciate it's a few years ahead from the £21 million of rental income lost on Queen Anne's Mansions and the refinancing of roughly £500 million of debt at higher marginal financing rates? Thank you.
Mark Allan: Great. Thank you, Paul. I’ll ask Vanessa to comment first on how we think about leverage capacity, which is something, of course, we've I think managed very effectively as a business over a period of very substantial value action. I'll perhaps then pick up on equity and between us try to answer your question on FY 2028 as well.
Vanessa Simms: Yes. So Paul, I think I've mentioned a couple of times before, anyway. When we look at our leverage position, we're focused on our loan-to-value ratio, but also, I would say, more importantly, to some degree, the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio and interest cover. And we're looking to manage our net debt-to-EBITDA below 8 times, so we're currently around 7.4 times. So any investments that we make going forward. It's important that those investments align to our prioritization to drive income growth. And in order -- and therefore, that we look at it through that lens, which means that we will manage our position, our net debt-to-EBITDA position below 8 times. And we also then look at managing our LTV as we stated in our target range. So we would look to primarily be within the range and than we are today, which is just under 35% LTV. And I think, therefore, what we – the way in which we manage that is also through our ability to recycle capital effectively as we've demonstrated over recent years, we've got good liquidity in parts of our portfolio, and we acted to them on recycling in order to invest and in quality, higher income generating assets.
Mark Allan: And I think it's just worth looking at the track record of the business a little bit in how we've been effective in managing all three of those leverage-related metrics, maintaining a high credit rating, benefiting from low cost of debt. So Vanessa mentioned in the presentation, issuing a £350 million bond in the period at 4.6 coupon, which is pretty attractive, refinancing 2.25 billion RCF, which is extended debt maturity to 65 basis point margin, I think, shows that the credit quality of Landsec’s business is still very much understood. But having a bulletproof balance sheet is something that underpins all of our strategy is not something we would ever list to risk. You asked a question on equity issuance. And obviously, there's been a little bit of activity in the sector since we were last reporting. And I guess what's been interesting about that is showing a willingness from the market to support equity issuance that delivers EPS growth, even though that may come at the expense of a little bit of NTA dilution. I think our view remains, as I think I said six months ago, is that for the right assets, to me, it would have to be the right asset. It have to be genuinely scarce real estate, the sort of things that I think REIT should be owning for the long-term that can support long-term earnings growth. For the right assets, that's something we would actually consider, but it would have to be earnings accretive and it would have to be generally scarce opportunity. With respect to your last question, I'm always impressed when analysts are moving beyond 2024, in fact, so 2028 is a very rare question. But I think the underlying, we've got one particular asset with a very significant negative reversion coming in 2028 when the -- at least the justice of Queen Anne's Mansions reaches expiry. We're working through plans on that scheme at the moment for alternative uses, and I think making some good early progress there. In the meantime, I think the rest of the portfolio with a growing version, I think, will be pretty meaningful by that period of time. In terms of refinancing debt, of course, we're meaning to see where rates are at that point. But I think what Vanessa and our treasury team have shown pretty effectively over the last couple of years is the ability to access the markets quickly when rates are attractive, and I would expect us to continue doing that and to continue to outperform the sector average in terms of the cost of debt that we're able to secure. Thank you, Paul. Just behind, Jonathan. Question there. Good morning.
Jonathan Kownator: Good morning. Jonathan Kownator, Goldman Sachs. Just one quick question on your like-for-like rent growth. Obviously, it's moving up towards the 4% mark. One of the drivers of that is increase in occupancy, obviously. Are you able to continue to drive occupancy up? It's obviously quite high already, but what's the headwind here? And what does this mean to like-for-like lenders going forward?
Mark Allan: Yes. I mean it's obviously getting occupancy above 100 is going to be tricky. So you're right, there's -- I think there's more. There's still headroom within the retail portfolio. But I think that the two sort of go hand-in-hand, that once you've got higher occupancy and lower vacancy in the portfolio, you are inevitably creating more pricing tension. And I think that's particularly relevant in the retail portfolio. We've got numerous examples over the past six months, and we were in the next six to 12 months to where we have got multiple brands chasing the same space. And ultimately, that's what's going to drive growth is we've got multiple bids for the same space.
Jonathan Kownator: And obviously the 7% reversion on the re-lettings is an average number. Can you help us understand perhaps how this reversion is moving for the best space that you have? And is it moving into lint double-digit territory?
Mark Allan: I mean I think the range because I mean in the past, we've had some quite broad ranges on leasing to ERVs. That range is now starting to narrow. So I think we're getting at a better read of the overall market. I think where demand has been strongest over the last 12 months, probably will remain strongest for the next 12 months is on the larger units, the larger MSUs because you've got brands that want to in the case of Primark and White Rose, a doubling space, we're very close to signing a deal with another retailer that we'll see them triple their space at one of our centers. So that's where we're seeing the most of the rental tension. Of course, they reset, minus 35% peak to trough, and have been at that level until the last 12 or so months that things have started to grow. My own view is for those dominant assets that are in that top 1% retailers want to be there. They've also shut a lot of other stores elsewhere. So whilst our rents are down 35%, their rent bill is down significantly more than that. Online channels have become significantly more expensive to service. So you're looking at these stores now serving online channel as well as offline. I think all of that points to significant sustained demand for that space, and that should be translating into upward rental growth on a basis that no one is doing any more of these things. So whether that's double digit or not will remain to be seen, but there's a firmly upward pressure on those rents that they expect to persist for some time.
Jonathan Kownator: Thank you.
Mark Allan: Thanks Jon. Perhaps I'll just go one step back to Zach second and then we'll come over to Rob over here just to save the walking with the microphone.
Zachary Gauge: Thanks. Zachary Gauge from UBS. A couple of questions from me. Firstly, on the pipeline, if that's okay. I think, you've obviously tilted the mix gives residential, which would make sense. In London, you probably don't have as much flexibility and you're quite exposed to the South Bank's submarket. You mentioned you're probably not expecting to do pre-leases on Timber Square. Could you give an indication of how long post completion you would expect to see that building filling up? And then as sort of a follow-on to future pipeline, with the returns you showed, it does look that major retailers probably the best risk-adjusted returns on that basis, should we actually expect more delayed start dates on the office schemes if you sort of divert more of your free capital into shopping centers? And the second question, some really interesting data that you showed on the percentage of spend in shopping destinations. I'm just wondering if you could reconcile that with the strong performance that we've seen in retail parts, which, if I'm not mistaken, with your top-performing sector over the past six months, with your retail parks not typically located in prime city center locations, so how do you sort of see the balance between those two formats given the data that you showed in this chart?
Mark Allan: Sure. Thanks. So development leasing, first of all, so we've got two projects onsite at Thirty High in Victoria and then Timber Square on the South Bank, both slated to completion towards the end of 2025, Thirty High first. They're both multi-let projects, so was designed and intended strategically to be multi-let, so letting individual floors or small numbers of floors. And in those cases, that tends to lend itself to occupiers wanting to see and understand the space and has their work, and they tend to have shorter periods of time required to pick out, for example. So unlike 21 Moorfields here, which is a very significant length of fit-out process, being able to move more quickly. So I'd expect to see that start to translate into demand leasing, pre-leasing being signed at both of those assets from probably the middle part of next year. And we would always assume that we would be leased, fully leased across an asset within 12 months of PC. If I look at our last development cycle, we fully leased N2 and lucent within two to three months of PC. We were a bit slower at the forge down in South Bank. Ultimately, those things net out to a quite significant outperformance on that. But multi, I think we'll always take a little bit longer 12 months is the post-PC is also a typical assumption. With respect to capital allocation, as we said, risk-adjusted returns in major retail look most attractive. We're taking on an expectation of investing more before the end of this financial year for that reason. We then, in the background, and show more detail on it today, have built significant optionality on both the London office pipeline and a residential-led pipeline. Now the CapEx across those two in totality, although they're not all available to go at the same time, is probably £4 billion or something. So we are clearly going to have to make decisions on where we choose to allocate capital. I think those are decisions for the next financial year will want to see the current development program begin to be derisked across 2025. That will then give us the confidence to look at how we want to recycle capital into the next phase of development. And we've got a very attractive pipeline across both of those sectors to choose from. It will come down to risk-adjusted return scheme by scheme as we assess those during the course of the next financial year. And then with respect to retail parks and shopping centers, I think that I've always sort of understood or being aware of a narrative of shopping centers versus retail parks as different retail formats. What we've tried to show today is they are serving two completely different purposes. So it's not that we think shopping centers are better than retail parks or indeed that we have any view vice versa. It's more where do we see our competitive advantage for the long term. We had and still have, I think, by far the strongest diversified major retail portfolio across the UK. We have strong relationships with up to 600 brands that lease space across those centers. We're seeing a benefit from the upsizing of stores. We're seeing a benefit from footfall and desire for a greater experience besides the retail experience from visitors. All of those are things that are specific to centers, so it's more an experience-led approach. Retail parks are much more convenient led. So they're smaller lot sizes. Their cap rates have come in more quickly, I think, reflecting the greater liquidity in that space. But to me, what should we as REITs be owning? We should be earning assets that themselves can underpin long-term, consistent growth in rents. As I look at our portfolio and our shopping centers in particular, I see a portfolio of assets that I believe for the long term, we'll be delivering consistent growth in net rental income from here. Thank you. Rob, mic coming to you.
Rob Jones: Yes. Thanks so much. Rob Jones, BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY). Three questions, two on Timber Square. One, just on the point you were making about retail parks not versus shopping centers. The first one on Timber Square is going follow-on from Zach's questions. I appreciate your commentary around not pre-letting that but -- and indeed your confidence in being able to lease that space, say, within 12 months of PC. But why not undertake some pre-lets? And do you think there's a notable difference in terms of rental to debt that you might be able to achieve leasing post completion versus price completion? And the second one, Timber Square I think you said cost increases not over, obviously, given the change in scope, £31 million in total, some of that subcontractor administration. Maybe you could just touch on the financial impact of that subcontract administration and maybe any incremental lessons learned to further mitigate any risk of that kind of thing happen going forward. And then the other one, you're saying kind of shopping center long-term ability to drive both rental growth and ultimately attractive return on capital. Does that mean that you don't see retail parks being able to deliver that?
Mark Allan: Okay. Thank you. So leasing Timber Square, sort of first of all. So the feature of these types of assets, and it applies probably even more so to Thirty High, is the size of floor space, these are intended to be multi-let, and it tends to be that the occupiers that are looking for that space have shorter lead times. Also it also tends to be that we're going to get stronger demand and ultimately better pricing when they've got a sense of what the space actually looks like, and that's particularly the reception area, the arrival experience, all those things that are so additive to just the specific demands that they're leasing. I was done at Times Square last about a month ago. You already now starting to get a sense of what the lobby and arrival experience in terms of scale is going to be like. So we don't want to go too quickly and find ourselves be encouraged to look at a softer rent to underwrite demand because we have the strength of the balance sheet to be able to wait for better pricing. We are making presentations, beginning to make presentations on how the people that have got requirements out there. That tends to lead to a six or so month sort of process of people going through it. So that's partly what I'm saying when I would say from middle of next year, we would expect to start to see some movement on leasing. But it's a feature of the multi-let rather than trying to do single let headquarters building. You recall that we've effectively exited all of our single-let assets, including the one that we're setting this morning sort of over the last few years. On costs on Timber Square, so it's a £31 million increase in cost reflected in the period. Around £11 million of that £31 million was down to changes in specification, in particular, introducing a club room into a second building which will be reflected in better rents that we achieved and a couple of other minor changes around the edges. But around £20 million of that was down to cost increases, largely a result of a subcontractor failure. So we procure. That we chose 18 months or so ago to, procure that building on a construction management basis where we let multiple individual packages rather than a single D&B contract. It's the only projects where we have done that. And in looking at our pipeline going forward, we have no plans to possess. But what that meant was that we were taking – whilst we had good price certainty, we were taking the risk of subcontractor failure rather than a contractor standing between us and that failure. It was an M&E contractor that fails is a pretty important package and multiple facets about across the scheme. And of course, if you then back out retendering an M&E project in a scheme that you're already building, you're inevitably going to see some opportunism from other subcontractors within the market. So I guess there is certainly less amount. I think there is a reasonable amount of sort of stress out there in the supply chain at the moment. It's something we're very cognizant and very careful to manage, and we know recently we saw the ISG failure as well. So we know there's trust in the supply chain is something we manage very, very carefully. In this case, it hit us. We are 95% let across that package now and have no concerns as things stand about the remainder of the supply chain. And then shopping centers long-term, I think my comment is on the ability of shopping centers to deliver rental growth for the long term based on delivering an experience and being able to bring new brand concepts in, greater hospitality and leisure offer as part of that rather than the view that retail parks don't deliver that. So I think I'd probably rather focus on the positives of the assets that we own and are keen to invest in, but they are truly, truly unique assets and no one is building any more. We'll come to the front and we'll come to Max also in the front row.
Unidentified Analyst: Romney, [indiscernible]. I think what I'm hearing push back on me on this, is if you can buy really good assets with those ungeared IRRs, I'm thinking major retail, then obviously, it makes sense to buy it than build it. And that applies generally across your sort of portfolio. And you've stressed the optionality again, as you've done in previous results in your major pipeline. I guess why I wondered if you've got -- if you can deploy caters of 10% plus on get IRRs a major retailer. Any rules of thumb of what we need to see where you would say, actually, I do want to commit on developments. So what I'm getting at here is it’s 7% plus sort of yield on cost isn't good enough for? So what does it need to be either the yield and cost going up right now is spread over your revaluation yield or over the risk free, anything like that, where you could say where we can say actually it makes sense for Landsec to get back to, get back to being sort of a developer as well? And the second question is sort of joint ventures question, seems to have gone very quiet you've spoken about in the past? Thank you.
Mark Allan: Yes. So with respect to allocating capital and development, I think the important thing for us to do is to be very cognizant of the risks that are involved within that. Clearly, there are much lower risks in buying major retail. There aren't that many of those assets out there. So there's going to be a fine amount of opportunity to invest major retail. There will be opportunities to invest through CapEx in enhancing and improving and extending the schemes. And I think those are the pretty attractive double-digit IRRs, mid-teens IRRs, as I indicated during the presentation. So that still at this point, feels as though that's going to be most attractive. Of course, at some point, that would suggest that the cap rates that these assets are currently held at or available at are going to start to come in. So there's a finite period of time that you'll be able to deploy capital there. Hence, why we are prioritizing that and there's a window of opportunity. But then for development risk, we should be looking for a meaningful premium to what we can get from buying income. So if you're looking at an ungeared IRR for holding London office assets at the moment is probably, let's say, that's in the 7% to 8% range based on where cap rates are today, I think you'd want to be looking at 11% to 12% IRR to give you an adequate delta. Is that achievable in the market at the moment? I think it is if you work hard, but I think you do have to believe an element of growth, whether you want to price that growth in the form of rent or whether you want to put it in terms of cap rate compression. And that means it is to us, I think, a pretty finely balanced decision and we're not going to actually go after developments and back ourselves to deliver epic rental growth if we can go and buy very attractive income that is already growing in sectors that we have real expertise in. And then third party capital or joint ventures. I've mentioned in respect of the pipeline, £4 billion of CapEx. For the avoidance of doubt, we don't have £4 billion of capacity to take those projects forward ourselves. So at some point in the future, I would think that, that is an opportunity to work with private capital. As things stand, we’ve got two fully funded developments on our own balance sheet that will complete next year. We've been in an environment where capital raising for anyone has been something of a challenge. So I don't think 2024 has been the time to try and work with private capital going forward. I think that could be an opportunity. It's not something we're relying on, but I think it is something that could offer upside. Thank you. I'm just going to come. You covered Max. We've answered Max’s question. We’re back to Paul. I'm not sure if you're allowed to have a second go, but let's see what the question is. I reserve the right to ignore it if I don't like it.
Paul May: Just a very quick one, just following on from you answer there. I mean private capital is probably far more expensive than your own capital. So why are you still looking to use that? Thank you.
Mark Allan: I'd say I think it's an option. It's not something we're committing to. And I think any business should be looking at the range of options that it has to capitalize the opportunities in front of it, whether that's private, our own balance sheet, new public equity, we will always look at those sources. But having more sources of capital available, I think, is better than fewer. So that's how we would think about it. I don't see any further questions within the room. So I'm going to open up to the conference call and see if there are any calls online. I've got some ones on the screen here but I think they’re coming from the webcast rather than the conference call. So let me go to the conference call first for any questions beyond what we've already had within the auditorium.
Operator: The first question is from [indiscernible]. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Analyst: Hi, good morning. Thank you for the presentation and for taking my questions too. First one, on major retail, you're fairly confident that you can deploy more capital, but at the same time, I think there is good evidence that valuations are turning point. So the question is, why would any owner sell now or is it just you that you're more willing to buy a tighter yields? And second, I noticed that the ERV uplift for City offices is very strong. Could you provide more color there? And just in general, what your view is on city offices versus Victoria? Thanks.
Mark Allan: Thank you, [indiscernible]. So yes, with respect to major retail, there are certainly owners of assets in that top 1% that we've talked about on that chart that are not sellers, that are long-term holders. But there are a number of these assets that we know are held in capital structures, many of which are in the hands of debt-driven investors that have ended up owning assets. So I think that's ultimately where the potential for sale comes from rather than people having a fundamentally different view in the sector, I think it's a different type of capital. But it is, of course, a sector that requires quite significant operational expertise, relationships with brands, ability to understand and underwrite investment opportunities from an asset management standpoint beyond simply acquiring the asset upfront. So I think that means there will be enough people out there that are – will be interested in selling at the right time and obviously at the right price. And we've indicated confidence in getting the capital deployed that we want to. But what we're not suggesting is that we are the only people out there who think these are great assets. I think we're seeing more and more people thinking actually, this is a pretty interesting sector, which is why I mentioned earlier that if the rents are right and the rents are growing and the CapEx is 20 basis points, then the cap rate should not be where cap rate is. And I think more people are starting to appreciate that. And then ERVs in the city. I think ultimately what tends to happen within valuations across the portfolio is that our ERV growth tends to be a read across from leasing activity within the specific assets within the specific portfolio. So what you've seen in the city is just evidence of deals that we've done in a couple of our assets that are given clear evidence for other deals coming forward within those assets rather than people looking at market evidence and being prepared to mark that across all assets in that particular geography. So I think that's one of the reasons you might see elsewhere leading to ERV relative to ERV growth showing a bit of a lag difference. I think there is a desire to see actual evidence in those specific assets to properly reflect the ERV growth. We've seen that in the city because in the West End, for example, we've effectively been full at Victoria for some time. We haven't had the opportunity to demonstrate where that price points should move to. We will, over the next 12 or so months have some opportunity to move those on, I think, reasonably significantly as well. Thank you. Are there any other questions on the conference call? Otherwise, I have a couple from the webcast that we will cover. The next question is from Adam Shapton from Green Street. Please go ahead.
Adam Shapton: Hi, good morning. Just a couple from me. First probably quite simple just on the portfolio rating. So you guided in the recent past to targeting 55% to 60% to Central London, just on the basis of the sort of capital allocation preference commentary today. Is that still the case or are you comfortable with Central London moving lower in particular London office moving lower within that portfolio weighting? And then the second question is just back to the issuing equity question. I just wanted to clarify the message that you want us to take away on that and to pause first question, I think you would only envisage issuing equity it was associated with a particular acquisition and only of that was exceptional in terms of prospective IRR or earnings accretion or whatever it might be. I just wanted to make sure that we take away exactly the messaging you want to see on that.
Mark Allan: Thank you, Adam. So the first question on capital allocation and target weighting, I think at the moment, what we have much clearer visibility of is a pipeline of projects that we can choose to commit capital to based on the assessment of returns and risk next year. I think that will take priority over slavishly trying to get to one particular put waiting or another. I think we'll be in a position to provide a clearer update on that, once we are further through the current development projects, once we've concluded the investment plans that we've indicated in major retail to then, say, well, how are we thinking about capital allocation forward from there. So I think that something will be able to answer for you in the next financial year. And then just to reiterate and thank you for coming back on the question on equity. So I guess the first message is very important to take away is we've been clear, we have balance sheet capacity today, and we intend to deploy that capacity first. I think the second thing I would say is we have good liquidity in parts of the portfolio, particularly noncore parts of the portfolio, and we would always prioritize releasing capital from noncore assets over adding any new capital in. And then the third is were we to consider raising equity, it would have to be for a genuinely case asset. It would have to be EPS-accretive. And we would look at the NTA impact of anything like that, but would not be averse to doing something that was mildly dilutive as long as it was for the scarce assets and it was EPS accretive. But those first two points, thank you for giving me the chance to raise. There's again that we have no need or plan at this point because of our existing balance sheet capacity. And beyond that, we have liquidity elsewhere in the portfolio that we would take advantage of first.
Adam Shapton: Okay, very clear. Thank you.
Mark Allan: Thank you. And any further questions on the conference call?
Operator: At this time, there are no questions from the call.
Mark Allan: Perfect. Thank you very much. So I’ve just two brief questions to pick up from the webcast. So firstly, from Neil at JPMorgan, given the constructive view on residential development, how are you looking at acquisitions in this sector 2, whether that be land or standing assets alongside major retail? So to answer that, our priority very clearly in the near term, certainly on the six month view, is major retail and only major retail in terms of what we choose to do in the residential space now that we have got a much greater clarity on our own pipeline, that is something that we will provide a clearer view on I'll be able to provide a clearer view on in the next financial year. So it's another question for us to be answering now, but something that we will certainly be considering as those projects in the pipeline come forward. And then for Mike at Jefferies. Is the budget to green the entire portfolio is 100% EPC A to B still £ 135 million? Well, we announced that back, I think, in late 2021. We've made good progress on design and also with the first initial projects. We're still working within that overall £135 million number. We're in good shape. I think we will start on four, if not five projects this year. We've procured those and we've procured those within the overall budget that we allocated ourselves originally. So being able to absorb inflation within that part of the market and firmly on track to be 100% EPC A or B by 2030 as a result of that plan. I believe -- I hope we've dealt with all of the questions that have come up across the various different channels. So just leave me to thank you all for taking the time, either in person or online to join us today, and wish you a great remainder of your Friday. Thank you.
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