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U.S. stock futures higher as attention returns to data and Fed

Published 11/15/2016, 07:00 AM
© Reuters.  Wall Street futures point to higher open as Trump effect fades, data and Fed back in focus
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Investing.com - Wall Street futures pointed to a slightly higher open with the Dow on track for a seventh consecutive session of gains as most investors seemed to take a pause on recent market moves based on expectations for U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s future policies and turned their attention back to economic data and its implications for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decisions.

The blue-chip Dow futures inched up 13 points, or 0.07%, by 6:56AM ET (11:56GMT), the S&P 500 futures edged forward 4 point, or 0.17%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures gained 9 points, or 0.18%.

Evidence of the pause in investor sentiment could be found in the dollar as it weakened against a basket of major currencies. Investors were locking in profits after a recent rally that drove the greenback to the strongest level since December 2015 spawned by speculation that future Trump policies would accelerate inflation and lead the Fed to tighten monetary policy.

Heightened inflation expectations had also been responsible for driving the 41 basis point jump in the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury in its steepest climb in more than seven years.

As investors in sovereign debt took a break on Tuesday, global bond prices were higher for the first time in almost a week. Bond prices move inversely to yields.

With Trump policy speculation apparently having run its course, investors will focus Tuesday on the next set of U.S. data to see whether it supports expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates before the end of the year.

The most important piece of data Tuesday will be October retail sales at 8:30AM ET (13:30 GMT). The consensus forecast is that the report will show retail sales rose 0.6% last month. Core sales are forecast to inch up 0.5%.

Besides the retail sales report, the U.S. will also release data on import prices and the Empire State manufacturing survey at 8:30AM ET (13:30GMT), while business inventories are out at 10:00AM ET (15:00GMT).

There will also be a flurry of Fed speakers Tuesday, ahead of Fed chair Janet Yellen's congressional testimony Thursday.

Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren is due to speak at 8:00AM ET (13:00GMT), Fed governor Daniel Tarullo at 9:05AM ET (14:05GMT), Fed vice chair Stanley Fischer at 1:30PM ET and Dallas Fed president Rob Kaplan also at 1:30PM ET (18:30GMT).

On Monday, Kaplan indicated that it was far too early to interpret what the impact of Trump policies would be and said he was sticking to his previous outlook that it would appropriate to raise rates soon.

"I think you'll see us in the near future remove some accommodation," Kaplan said.

Aside from Kaplan, Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker said late Monday that more fiscal stimulus would bolster the case for raising rates, but it would be necessary to see how fiscal policies played out.

Markets are currently pricing an 81.1% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's December 13-14 meeting, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool.

On the company front, Home Depot (NYSE:HD) was up close to 2% in pre-market trade on Tuesday after the blue-chip home improvement retailer beat third quarter earnings estimates thanks to higher store traffic and customer spending.

Airlines could also see upside on Tuesday after a filing released after the prior day’s close showed that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKa) had taken stakes in American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL), United Continental (NYSE:UAL) and Delta Airlines (NYSE:DAL).

Meanwhile, oil prices were higher during early trading on Tuesday, bouncing back from a three-month low as market players hoped major global oil producers will reach an agreement to cut output.

Bloomberg reported that several OPEC members were engaged in a last-minute push to overcome divisions between the cartel’s biggest producers.

Qatar, Algeria and Venezuela are leading the push to finalize a deal, while Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran are at odds over how to share output cuts agreed at a September meeting in Algiers, according to a delegate familiar with the talks.

Market players are also looking ahead to weekly data from the U.S. on stockpiles of crude and refined products.

Industry group the American Petroleum Institute is due to release its weekly report at 4:30PM ET (20:30GMT).

Taken in context and despite the gains of 3% on Tuesday, oil prices remained far from October highs above $50.

U.S. crude futures surged 3.53% to $44.84 by 6:59AM ET (11:59GMT), while Brent oil jumped 3.35% to $45.93.

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