Investing.com -- BTIG analysts predicted in a note Friday that the S&P 500 will break through to new record highs, potentially exceeding 5700 within the next week or two.
The analysts cite the shifting odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting as a key driver behind this bullish outlook.
"The biggest news in the last 24 hours has been the shift in odds for a 50bps cut," BTIG said, noting that just 24 hours ago, the likelihood stood at about 15%. That probability has now surged to between 45-50%.
This change has already bolstered market activity, especially in small-cap stocks, which were up around 1% pre-market.
BTIG also pointed to rising gold prices, now at fresh highs, and silver up by 70 basis points. They reiterated their view that ETFs like IWM, XOP, GDX (NYSE:GDX), and SLV are poised for further gains.
The S&P 500 is currently about 1% away from an all-time high. BTIG noted the parallels to the Fed’s rate cut cycle in 2007 when the market rebounded from a significant drawdown and reached a marginal new high before entering a downturn.
However, the firm highlighted the differences in today’s market, particularly with credit spreads remaining stable.
"This time around, spreads saw a little widening in August, but have been steady the last few weeks around 130bps."
While BTIG sees a move above 5700 as imminent, they caution that after the FOMC meeting, investors should evaluate the risk/reward balance, as a potential "sell the news" scenario could emerge. In the near term, the analysts favor small-cap stocks over mega-cap tech, expecting better performance in that sector.