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Options bets on earnings-fueled volatility in US stocks paying off

Published 08/07/2023, 01:59 PM
Updated 08/07/2023, 02:52 PM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Raindrops hang on a sign for Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., October 26, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo
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By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - An options strategy that bets on stocks logging larger-than-expected moves on corporate results has been a surprising winner this earnings season, data from options analytics service ORATS showed.

Buying options straddles on U.S. companies reporting results over the last three weeks - a strategy that combines a put and a call option - is paying off this quarter, ORATS data showed.

Calls convey the right to buy shares at a fixed price in the future and puts offer the right to sell shares. Owning both these contracts is a way for traders to profit from larger-than-expected post-earnings stock swings.

For the last three weeks, options straddles on U.S. companies reporting results fetched an average return of 8%, ORATS data showed. That compares with an average return of -2% over the last 12 quarters.

"It is not usual for straddles to pay off," ORATS founder Matt Amberson said, noting that the strategy has tended to be a slight loser in recent quarters.

Generally poor expectations for stock gyrations at the start of earnings season - the Cboe Volatility Index hovered near a more than 3-year low as earnings kicked off - may have helped set up the trade favorably by making it cheaper for investors to bet on heightened stock moves.

With volatility expectations low, stocks handily topped options-implied moves as earnings season progressed.

That, however, may be changing, Amberson said.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Raindrops hang on a sign for Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., October 26, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo

As volatility has picked up, these bets have become more expensive, making it harder for the strategy to post a win.

Of the 422 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings as of Aug. 4, 79.1% beat analysts' expectations, the highest rate since the third quarter of 2021, I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv showed.

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