By Senad Karaahmetovic
While several equity strategists, including those at Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, recently warned about the limited upside in U.S. stocks, Oppenheimer analysts see the potential for the S&P 500 to continue grinding higher in the coming months.
Technical analysts there believe the S&P 500 could rally to as high as 4600, which implies an upside potential of around 11% from current levels. The index is already up ~7.8% year-to-date (YTD).
“Rallies with more stocks participating are often the rallies that continue, meaning we surely don’t see this as a market positive. However, we don’t think this has become a negative either, and side with the view that large-cap strength should outweigh small-cap weakness,” they said in a client note.
The S&P 500 rally should also lift Russell 2000 to 2100, signaling an upside potential of ~18%. The analysts reminded investors that the latter continues to trade above the key support (1650).
However, if small-cap stocks continue to trend lower and ultimately hit a new cycle low, they believe this could make the S&P 500 more vulnerable and push the index to below 3800.