By Jamie McGeever
(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.
Asian markets on Monday get their first chance to react to the global market fallout from Friday's U.S. employment report, which saw the biggest one-day rise in Treasury yields and the dollar in two months.
Traders also pared back Fed rate cut expectations - the probability of a pre-election rate cut is now no more than 50-50, and two full rate cuts are no longer priced in for this year.
This counters some of the dovish momentum that had been building earlier last week when the Bank of Canada and European Central Bank cut rates, and the dollar and Treasury yields touched two-month lows.
Indeed, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the MSCI World index all hit record highs last week before Friday's reversal, and Asian stocks still managed to rise nearly 3% for their fifth weekly rise out of the last seven.
But rising U.S. bond yields and an appreciating dollar does not bode well for investors' appetite for risk, so Friday's market moves could put Asian assets on the defensive at the open on Monday. Investors and traders in Asia may already be inclined to reduce risk exposure ahead of two major monetary policy decisions this week from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan.
Sources familiar with the BOJ's thinking say policymakers are brainstorming ways to slow its bond buying and may offer fresh guidance this week, in what would be a first key step to reducing its almost $5 trillion balance sheet.
While details are not finalised, the central bank could trim monthly purchases or clarify plans to proceed with a slow but steady taper with a focus on preventing abrupt yield spikes, the four sources said.
Japanese trade and current account figures for April will be released on Monday, as will the final estimate of first-quarter GDP. A Reuters poll suggests there will be no change to the quarter-on-quarter contraction of 0.5%, but the annualised print will be nudged up to -1.9 from -2.0% on the back of stronger capex.
Industrial production figures from Malaysia and Indonesian consumer confidence complete a light economic calendar on Monday.
Meanwhile, in China-related news, U.S. officials expect G7 countries at this week's summit in Italy to send a tough new warning to smaller Chinese banks to stop assisting Russia in evading Western sanctions, according to two people familiar with the matter.
Media reports also suggest Volvo (OTC:VLVLY) has started to shift production of Chinese-made electric vehicles to Belgium in anticipation that the European Union will crack down on Beijing-subsidised imports.
And Turkey said on Saturday it will impose a 40% additional tariff on imports of vehicles from China.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:
- Japan GDP (Q1, final estimate)
- Malaysia industrial production (April)
- Indonesia consumer confidence (May)