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Labor force participation leads to big jump in unemployment rate

Published 07/06/2018, 08:44 AM
© Reuters.  Labor force participation leads to big jump in unemployment rate
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  • First taking a look at the establishment data, 213K jobs were added in June vs. expectations for 200K. Revisions added a total of 37K jobs to the April and May reports. We'll call things on this front a modest beat.
  • The average workweek was flat at 34.5 hours, and average hourly earnings rose a nickel to $26.98; the year-over-year increase was 2.7% vs. expectations of 2.8%.
  • Turning to the household data, the headline unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4% from 3.8%. This was mostly thanks to a gain in the denominator of the unemployment equation - the labor force grew by 601K, bringing the labor force participation rate to 62.9% from 62.7%.
  • The broader U-6 unemployment rate rose to 7.8% from 7.6%. One year ago, it was 8.5%.
  • The knee-jerk reaction of markets suggest they're focused for now on the big move in the unemployment rate - yields (TLT, TBT) and the dollar (UUP, UDN) have moved lower, while gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) has edged higher. Also moving modestly higher since the number are S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) futures, now barely in the green for the session.
  • Previously: 213K jobs added in June; UE rate jumps to 4% (July 6)
  • Now read: Gold: 6 Reasons A Bottom Could Be Near And Why Prices May Go Substantially Higher


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