- The downgrade came out prior to the election results, but it's mostly a valuation call, so JPMorgan's (JPM +5.8%) big move today shouldn't sway David George and team.
- Calling JPMorgan a great company and a core bank holding, George says the stock is fairly valued and would wait for a sizable pullback before adding. Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) offers a better risk-reward, but George cautions that investor sentiment towards banks seems a little too positive at the moment, with prices mostly discounting a December rate hike and improving macro outlook.
- Putting numbers on it, JPMorgan trades largely inline with big cap bank peers on forward earnings vs. an 85% relative multiple at the start of 2015, and at a 70% relative multiple to the S&P 500 vs. the long-term average of 65%.
- "We think an extended Fed tightening cycle is unlikely, and investors are underestimating the risks of further flattening in the yield curve and rising market volatility."
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JPMorgan downgraded at Baird
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