Investing.com -- Barclays adjusted its restaurant sector ratings, upgrading Shake Shack Inc (NYSE:SHAK) and Dutch Bros to ‘overweight,’ while downgrading Bloomin’ Brands and Dine Brands to ‘equal weight.’
Brokerage cited the resilience of fast-casual dining in 2024, driven by consumer shifts from traditional quick-service and casual dining. Fast-casual operators benefited from significant margin expansion and earnings leverage, Barclays (LON:BARC) noted, as the broader restaurant sector rose an average of 23%, in line with the S&P 500.
Shake Shack and Dutch Bros are positioned for continued outperformance this year, with both companies introducing new leadership in 2024, bringing operational efficiencies and strategies to sustain growth.
Barclays expects low-single-digit comparable sales growth and mid-teens unit expansion for both brands, supporting revenue growth of over 15% and EBITDA growth in the high-teens to low 20% range.
Key drivers for Shake Shack include loyalty program testing, improved drive-through operations, and product innovation. Meanwhile, Dutch Bros is leveraging mobile ordering, loyalty expansion, and targeted marketing while entering new markets.
Bloomin’ Brands and Dine Brands face headwinds from weak comparable sales and stagnant unit growth. Barclays projects low single-digit revenue and EBITDA growth for both in 2025, noting Bloomin’ Brands is vulnerable to margin pressure, while Dine Brands’ franchised model offers better insulation.
Valuations for both stocks remain at trough levels, with BLMN trading at 4x 2026 EBITDA and DIN at 5x. However, Barclays sees limited upside potential due to earnings challenges and market share pressures.