Barclays analysts predict that the 2024 election will lead to a divided government, with Democrats likely to win the House and Republicans favored for the Senate.
This split would result in legislative gridlock, limiting significant fiscal policy changes, according to the bank. Barclays stated, "Divided government would likely result in legislative gridlock as far as enacting fiscal policies, including spending and taxes."
The corporate tax rate is expected to remain around 21%. According to Barclays, "A unified Democratic government would likely seek to raise corporate taxes, though we view a 'blue wave' as the least likely outcome." Conversely, a "red wave" that expands corporate tax cuts faces challenges due to budget concerns.
Trade policies could shift significantly if former President Trump is elected, they state. Barclays noted, "Former President Trump's election could present the risk of higher tariffs."
They explain that these tariffs could lead to retaliatory measures from other countries, potentially reducing S&P 500 earnings by 2.6% from proposed Trump tariffs and another 1.2% from retaliatory tariffs.
The analysts also highlighted potential changes to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) under a second Trump term, which could affect clean energy sectors. "Clean energy beneficiaries of IRA tax incentives could face headwinds under a second Trump term," Barclays mentioned. Conversely, fossil fuel-dependent companies could benefit.
Barclays summarized, "Corp taxes at the lower bound could be a LSD tailwind to SPX EPS & a bigger headwind if raised, but both unlikely."
The bank's base case is that control of Congress likely will be split between Democrats and Republicans, regardless of whether President Biden or former President Trump is elected.