(Reuters) - Australian companies will likely post a steeper drop in profit this year than they did last year, as they struggle to match the 'abnormally high' earnings since the COVID-19 pandemic, UBS said on Tuesday.
The profits at companies listed on the benchmark S&P ASX 200 index are likely to decline 3.5% in fiscal 2024, steeper than the 2.9% decrease last year, the brokerage estimated.
"Consensus analysts expect earnings to fall again this year as companies continue to come off the high profits base they set through the COVID years," UBS analysts wrote in a note.
Mining giant Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) is set to kick off the earnings season on July 31, while other bellwether stocks such as BHP Group (NYSE:BHP) and Fortescue will report during the last week of August.
UBS expects the biggest drag to come from the heavyweight banking, consumer staples and retailers sectors as they come off last year's earnings peak.
The leaders, says UBS, are likely to arise among insurers, due to improved profitability, and companies with U.S. exposure, who should benefit from a weaker Australian dollar.
The ASX 200 has risen 4.7% so far this year and hit a record high in mid-July. It increased 7.8% over the whole of 2023.
UBS, though, said that due to the stretched valuations of the companies, "broad-based share price upside will not be easy through this results season."
It said that the corporate forecasts for the rest of this fiscal year will be key to setting the scene for stocks for the next six months.