Investing.com - The stock market's September turbulence appears to be unfolding as expected. Historical patterns, including election year cycles and ten-year cycles, suggest that the final quarter of the year could see a robust performance.
Notably, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) has demonstrated a highly seasonal pattern during the fall season. A monthly expected return histogram reveals that September tends to be the weakest month for Apple's stock, typically followed by a strong performance in October. Historical data shows that Apple's stock price ended September lower 67% of the time. However, the stock experienced a rise of over 70% of the time in October. If the stock price has dipped in September, the odds of a robust October performance increase to 75%.
A more detailed analysis reveals that from October 3rd through December 7th, Apple's share price has seen an increase nearly 70% of the time, with an average gain exceeding 13%.
The monthly dynamic cycle for Apple's shares tends to bottom out in October. In the past year, two buy signals have been generated, both of which have resulted in successful investments.
However, it's worth noting that the current market turbulence may not have fully played out. Therefore, it might be prudent to postpone any potential investments until the first week of October.