Strategas analysts warn that Donald Trump's choice of JD Vance as his running mate could backfire, potentially harming rather than helping his chances in the upcoming election.
Despite Trump's current momentum—bolstered by a debate win against President Biden, surviving an assassination attempt, and a favorable court ruling on his classified documents case— Strategas said Biden's approval rating had been rising before the shooting, and Trump did not achieve a new high in the polls post-debate.
The investment firm notes that while vice-presidential selections generally do not have a significant impact on elections, they are more likely to hurt than help a candidate when they do.
In this cycle, with aging candidates and the recent assassination attempt, Strategas believes voters are particularly concerned about whether the vice-presidential candidate is ready to assume the presidency if needed.
The Trump campaign believes that Vance will attract rural and exurban voters, solidifying the electoral college. However, Strategas remains skeptical.
They point out that Vance underperformed in the 2022 election, requiring substantial financial support, and suggest that Vance and Trump appeal to the same voter base. They feel that this redundancy could prevent Trump from breaking through his support ceiling.
Strategas emphasizes, "The opportunity cost of selecting Vance is that he and Trump attract the same voters and that the failure to select someone else prevented Trump from being able to break through his ceiling."
They explain that this is significant because Trump did not reach a new polling high after Biden's poor performance in the June 27 debate, where the typical effect for a sitting president is a 1.5 percent loss.
In conclusion, Strategas analysts believe that JD (NASDAQ:JD) Vance, as Trump's running mate, is unlikely to provide a boost to secure the election and might even hinder Trump's campaign by failing to expand his voter base.