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Forex - Weekly outlook: July 6 - 10

Published 07/05/2015, 06:27 AM
© Reuters. Dollar slips lower in thin trade on Friday as Greek referendum eyed
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Investing.com - The dollar was lower against the other major currencies in holiday-thinned trade on Friday as disappointing U.S. jobs data and uncertainty ahead of Greece’s bailout referendum over the weekend clouded market sentiment.

U.S. markets remained closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday.

The dollar remained on the back foot after the latest U.S. employment report tempered expectations for higher interest rates later this year.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that the U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs in June, compared to expectations for jobs growth of 230,000.

Hourly earnings were flat in June, missing expectations for growth of 0.2%.

The Federal Reserve has said that continued strengthening in the labor market is a key factor in deciding when to start hiking interest rates.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 96.38 late Friday, little changed for the day. For the week, the index still added 0.67%.

The dollar was lower against the safe haven yen, with USD/JPY slipping 0.24% to 122.78 in late trade.

The euro pushed higher against the greenback, with EUR/USD rising 0.24% to 1.1110.

The single currency was flat against the yen late Friday, with EUR/JPY at 136.44.

Major currencies stuck to recent ranges as investors looked ahead to a weekend referendum in Greece on whether to accept or reject the terms of an international bailout deal.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has called for a No vote, saying a vote against the proposals would give him a stronger mandate to agree a third bailout Greece’s creditors.

On Thursday the international Monetary Fund warned that Greece’s public finances will not be sustainable without a substantial debt write-off and added that the country will need an additional €50 billion in aid over the next three years to remain afloat.

Greece became the first developed country to default on the IMF after its second bailout program expired late Tuesday.

In the week ahead, investors will be awaiting the outcome of Sunday’s referendum in Greece, which could set the county on a course for an exit from the euro zone.

The week ahead will bring a look at U.S. service sector activity. Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes and central bank meetings in Australia and the U.K. will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 6

Germany is to release data on factory orders.

Switzerland is to publish a report on consumer inflation.

Canada is to publish a report on the Ivey business index.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on service sector activity.

Tuesday, July 7

New Zealand is to release private sector data on business confidence.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency reserves. This data is closely scrutinized for indications of the size of the bank’s operations in currency markets.

The U.K. is to release data on manufacturing and industrial production.

Both Canada and the U.S. are to release reports on the trade balance.

Wednesday, July 8

Japan is to release data on the current account.

The U.K. government is to release its annual budget statement.

Canada is to publish data on building permits.

Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its June meeting.

Thursday, July 9

Japan is to publish data on core machinery orders.

Australia is to publish its monthly employment report.

China is to release data on consumer and producer price inflation.

Later in the day, the Bank of England is to announce its benchmark interest rate.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, July 10

Australia is to release data on home loans.

The U.K. is to release data on the trade balance.

Canada is to publish its monthly employment report.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Cleveland; her comments will be closely watched.

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