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Forex - Weekly outlook: April 4 - 8

Published 04/03/2016, 06:51 AM
Updated 04/03/2016, 10:51 AM
© Reuters.  Dollar weakens as upbeat U.S. jobs data is not seen altering cautious Fed approach
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Investing.com - The dollar ended the week close to five-month lows against a basket of the other major currencies on Friday as investors bet that a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report would not prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more quickly.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, ended almost flat at 94.58, not far from Thursday’s five-and-a-half month lows of 94.31.

The index ended the week down 1.65% and the dollar ended the first quarter down 4.16%, the weakest quarterly performance since 2010.

The dollar fell to one-and-a-half week lows against the yen, with USD/JPY down 0.76% at 111.70 late Friday and ended the week with losses of 1.55%.

The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 215,000 jobs last month, ahead of economists’ expectations for jobs growth of 205,000.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 5% from an eight-year low of 4.9% as more people entered the labor market.

Average hourly earnings rose by seven cents last month after falling two cents in February.

A separate report showed that U.S. manufacturing activity expanded in March for the first time in six months as new orders rose.

The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index rose to 51.8 from 49.5 in February.

But the upbeat data did little to alter expectations that the Fed will remain cautious about hiking interest rates this year.

Earlier in the week Fed Chair Janet Yellen said global risks to the U.S. economy, including low oil prices and uncertainty over China justified taking a cautious approach to tightening monetary policy.

Lower interest rates make the dollar less attractive to yield seeking investors.

The euro touched highs of 1.1437, the most since October 15 before pulling back to 1.1389 in late trade.

The dollar fell against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF down 0.38% to 0.9580 late Friday.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s March meeting for fresh insights on how officials view the economic outlook.

The U.S. is also to release economic reports on trade, manufacturing and service sector activity.

A central bank meeting in Australia will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 4

Markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai will be closed for holidays.

Australia is to release data on building approvals and retail sales.

The euro zone is to report on the unemployment rate.

The U.K. is to release survey data on construction sector activity.

The U.S. is to publish data on factory orders.

Tuesday, April 5

Australia is to release data on the trade balance.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish data on factory orders.

The U.K. is to release data on service sector activity.

Both the U.S. and Canada are to publish trade balance reports and the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on U.S. service sector activity.

Wednesday, April 6

China is to publish the Caixin non-manufacturing index.

The Fed is to publish the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting, giving investors insight into how officials view the economy and their policy options.

Thursday, April 7

The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency reserves. This data is closely scrutinized for indications of the size of the bank’s operations in currency markets.

The U.K. is to release data on house price inflation.

The European Central Bank is to publish the minutes of its latest meeting.

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, April 8

The U.K. is to release data on manufacturing production.

Canada is to round up the week with the monthly employment report.

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