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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: June 6 - 10

Published 06/05/2016, 11:12 AM
Updated 06/05/2016, 02:12 PM
© Reuters.  Euro gains against weaker dollar after U.S. nonfarm payrolls shock
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Investing.com - The euro surged to three-week highs against the dollar on Friday as a far weaker than anticipated U.S. employment report for May raised doubts over the prospects for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the coming months.

The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added just 38,000 jobs last month, the smallest increase since September 2010.

Economists had forecast that payrolls would increase by 164,000.

April’s number was revised down to 123,000 from an earlier estimate of 160,000.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.7% from 5% in April as more people dropped out of the labor force.

The euro jumped higher following the report, with EUR/USD advancing 1.91% to 1.1366, the largest one-day gain since December 3.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 1.74% at 93.9 late Friday, the weakest level since May 12. The index ended the week down 1.54%.

The weak data cast doubts over the likelihood that the Fed will raise rates in the near term and sparked renewed concerns over slowing global growth.

The dollar had risen strongly against the other major currencies in May after Fed Chair Janet Yellen and other central bank officials indicated that the economy was on a strong enough footing to support higher interest rates.

Higher rates are positive for the dollar because they make the U.S. currency more attractive to yield-seeking investors.

The European Central Bank made small upward revisions to its outlook for inflation and growth this year on Thursday, but left its forecasts for the following two years unchanged.

ECB President Mario Draghi said the economic recovery is proceeding ‘gradually’, but warned that the risks to the global economy are to the downside after the bank made no changes to monetary policy.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to a speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Monday for signs on the future direction of interest rates.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of this and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 6

Germany is to publish data on factory orders.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Philadelphia.

Tuesday, June 7

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on foreign currency reserves.

Wednesday, June 8

Japan is to release data on the current account as well as revised data on first quarter growth.

China is to produce data on the trade balance.

The U.K. is to release data on manufacturing and industrial production.

Canada is to report on building permits.

Thursday, June 9

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a policy statement which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

Markets in China are to be closed for a holiday.

China is to publish inflation data.

ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Brussels.

The U.K. is to release data on the trade balance.

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on jobless claims.

Friday, June 10

Markets in China are to be closed for a holiday.

Canada is to publish the monthly employment report.

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on consumer sentiment.

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