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EUR/USD extends gains amid massive equity, bond rout on both continents

Published 02/08/2016, 05:31 PM
Updated 02/08/2016, 05:41 PM
EUR/USD gained more than 0.50% on Monday to close above 1.12
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Investing.com -- EUR/USD rose considerably on Monday, extending sharp gains from last week as bond yields in the euro zone fell deeper into negative territory amid continued declines in oil prices and a major sell-off in financial stocks on both continents.

The currency pair traded in a broad range between 1.1086 and 1.1216 before settling at 1.1202, up 0.0128 or 0.52% on the session. Since plunging nearly 1% on the final session of January, the euro has surged more than 3.25% versus the dollar over the first week of the month. The euro opened 2016 just below 1.09 against its American counterpart after plunging nearly 10% a year earlier.

EUR/USD likely gained support at 1.0538, the low from December 3 and was met with resistance at 1.1496, the high from Oct. 15.

A host of stocks among prominent European financial firms, including Deutschebank, Commerzbank (DE:CBKG), HSBC and BNB Paribas, plummeted anywhere between 3 and 7% on Monday, amid mounting fears on the impact of negative interest rates and persistently low oil prices. Several days after soaring more than 8% last Wednesday on hopes of a dramatic reduction in OPEC and non-OPEC production, crude slipped back below $30 a barrel, applying further pressure on banks and the high-yield market. Last month, JPMorgan Chase & Co (N:JPM), Citigroup Inc (N:C) and Wells Fargo & Company (N:WFC) all warned that they could incur credit losses in the hundreds of millions in oil and gas loans later this year if oil prices continued to weaken.

In Europe, the sell-off in bank stocks dragged down the major indices, as the Stoxx Europe 600, France CAC 40 and Germany Dax all fell by more than 3% on Monday, pushing the overall indices to their lowest levels in 16 months. It came as the cost of insuring the subordinate debt of European financial firms jumped by more than 12% on the session to its highest level since April 2013. The cost of insurance for both subordinate and senior debt for European banks has skyrocketed more than 40% in the last week.

Equity markets in the euro zone have struggled over the last two months, amid continued withdrawals from key markets, a flattening yield curve and indications on the strong likelihood of imminent asset write-downs.

Yields on the Germany 10-Year fell eight basis points to 0.22%, while government bond yields on the German 2-Year bunds dropped as low as negative 0.506%, their lowest level on record. Meanwhile, bond prices in Portugal tumbled on Monday, pushing Portuguese10-Year yields to 3.14%, their highest level in more than a year.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, closed at 96.76, retreating to near three-month lows from last week. On Friday, the U.S. Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported that long positions in the dollar fell for the week ending on Jan. 2, marking the sixth straight week of such declines.

Investors await an appearance by Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday morning for further indications on the pace of the Fed's tightening over the next several months. A spate of dovish comments from the Fed on the possibility of a gradual upward move, has led to heightened concerns among banks of declining profits due to lower lending growth.

Any rate hikes by the Fed this year are viewed as bullish for the dollar, as foreign investors pile into the greenback in an effort to capitalize on higher yields.

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