(Reuters) -A number of big banks expect global growth to slow in 2024, squeezed by elevated interest rates, higher energy prices and uncertainties in the world's two largest economies, although they see slim chances of a recession.
The global economy is forecast to grow 2.9% this year, a Reuters poll of economists showed, and is expected to slow to 2.6% in 2024.
While the global economy may avoid a recession, Europe and the United Kingdom could see a mild slowdown, according to the poll.
A soft landing for the United States is still on the cards, although uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path clouds the outlook.
Meanwhile, China's growth is expected to weaken amid property sector woes and faltering global demand.
Following are forecasts from major global banks:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024
GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO UK INDIA
AREA
Goldman 2.60% 2.10% 4.80% 0.90% 0.6% 6.3%
Sachs
Morgan 2.80% 1.90% 4.20% 0.50% -0.1% 6.4%
Stanley
UBS Global 2.60% 1.10% 4.40% 0.60%
Wealth
Management 0.6% 6.2%
Barclays 2.60% 1.20% 4.40% 0.30% 0.1% 6.2%
J.P.Morgan 2.20% 1.60% 4.90% 0.40% 0.2% 5.7%
BofA 2.8% 1.4% 4.8% 0.50% 0.1% 5.7%
Global
Research
Deutsche 2.4% 0.6% 4.7% 0.20% 0.3% 6.0%
Bank
Citigroup 1.9% 1.1% 4.6% -0.20% -0.30% 5.7%
U.S. inflation (annual Federal funds
Y/Y for 2024) target rate (Dec
'24)
Headline CPI Core PCE
Goldman Sachs 2.40% 2.50%
4%-4.25%
Morgan Stanley 2.10% 2.70% 4.375%
UBS Global 4.50%-4.75%
Wealth
Management
Wells Fargo 2.50% 2.60% 4.75%-5.00%
Barclays 2.70%
4.5%-4.75%
J.P.Morgan 2.50% 2.50%
4%-4.25%
BofA Global 2.80% 4.50%-4.75%
Research
Deutsche Bank 2.10% 3.63%
Citigroup 2.60% 4.50%
The Fed's main rate currently stands at 5.25%-5.50%.
S&P 500 US 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/C
target yield NY
target
Goldman Sachs 4,700 4.55% 1.10 150.00 7.15
Morgan Stanley 4,500 1 140 7.5
UBS Global 4,700 3.50% 1.12 140
Wealth 7.00
Management
Wells Fargo 4,600-4, 4.75%-5.25 1.08-1.1 136-140
800 % 2
Barclays 4.25% 1.09 145 7.20
J.P.Morgan 4,200 3.75% 1.13 146 7.15
BofA Global 5,000 4.25% 1.15 142 6.90
Research
Deutsche Bank 5,100 4.10% 1.10 135
Societe 4,750 3.75% 1.15
Generale
Citigroup 5,100 4.30% 1.02 135 7.25
HSBC 5,000
As of 1510 GMT on Dec. 14, 2023:
S&P 500: 4726.46
US 10-year yield: 3.9562%
EUR/USD: 1.0987
USD/CNY: 7.1113
USD/JPY: 141.68