🎈 Up Big Today: Find today's biggest gainers with our free screenerTry Stock Screener

Factbox-Brokerages see 'uncertain' 2025 on worries over potential Trump tariffs

Published 12/09/2024, 11:23 AM
Updated 12/09/2024, 11:31 AM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. President-elect Donald Trump gestures as he meets with House Republicans on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., November 13, 2024. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo
EUR/USD
-
USD/JPY
-
US500
-
USD/CNY
-

(Reuters) -Uncertainties around U.S. policies may slow global economic growth modestly in 2025, according to major brokerages. They expect U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs to fuel volatility across global markets, spurring inflationary pressures and, in turn, limiting the scope for major central banks to ease monetary policy.

World economies and equity markets have had a robust year, with global growth expected to average 3.1% this year, a Reuters poll published in October showed.

Following are forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025:

Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:

Brokerage S&P 500 U.S. 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CNY

target yield target

UBS Global 6400 3.80% 1.04 145 7.60

Research

Goldman Sachs 6500 4.25% 1.03(next 159(next 7.50(next

12-months) 12-months 12-months)

)

UBS Global 6600 4.00% 1.12 145 7.50

Wealth

Management

Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) 6500-6700 4.50%-5.00% 0.98-1.02 158-162

Investment

Institute

Societe 4.50% (Q4'25) 1.09 146.3 7.28

Generale 6750

Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) 7000 4.7% (Q4'25) 1.03 (Q4'25) 7.50

Nomura 135 6.93

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) 6500 3.55% (Q4'25) 1.10 (Q4'25) 138 7.60

(Q4'25) (Q4'25)

J.P.Morgan 6500 4.10% (Q3'25) 1.08 148 7.50

BofA Global 6666 4.25% 1.10 160 7.40

Research

Wells Fargo 4.00%

0.98 (Q4'25) 154 7.60

(Q4'25) (Q4'25)

BMO Capital 6700

Markets

Jefferies 6000

4.43%

Barclays (LON:BARC) 6600

4.25%

Piper Sandler 6600

Berenberg 4.90% 1.08 140 7.20

BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) 3.65% (Q4'25) 1.15 (Q4'25) 131

(Q4'25)

Canaccord 6325

Genuity

Citigroup (NYSE:C) 6500 4.20% (Q4'25)

ING 1.02 160 7.35

6700

HSBC

U.S. Inflation:

U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025)

Brokerage Headline CPI Core PCE

Goldman Sachs 2.5% 2.1%

J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.3%

Morgan Stanley 2.3% 2.5% (Q4/Q4)

Barclays 2.3% 2.5%

Wells Fargo 2.6% 2.5%

Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) 2.3% 2.5%

Deutsche Bank 2.8% (Q4/Q4) 2.6% (Q4/Q4)

Wells Fargo 3.3%

Investment

Institute

UBS Global 2.6%

Wealth

Management

Citigroup 2.1 (Q4'25) 2.3 (Q4'25)

BofA Global 2.4%

Research

Berenberg 2.7% 2.6%

BNP Paribas 2.3%

Nomura 2.8%

ING

2.4%

Wells Fargo 2.6%

2.5%

Jefferies 2.3%

Real GDP Growth:

Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025

Brokerage GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO AREA UK INDIA

UBS Global 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3% (for

Research FY 26)

Goldman Sachs 2.7% 2.5% 4.5% 0.8% 1.2% 6.3%

Barclays 3.0% 2.1% 4% 0.7% 1.2% 7.2%

Morgan Stanley 3.0% 2.1% 4.0% 1.0% 1.4% 6.5%

(FY25/FY2

6)

J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.2% 3.9% 0.8% 1.0% 6.0%

UBS Global Wealth 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3%

Management

Wells Fargo 2.5% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.6% 5.9%

Societe Generale 3.3% 2.2% 4.7% 1.0% 1.6%

Citigroup 1.1% 1.0%

2.2% 1.0% 4.2% 6.7%

Nomura 2.2 4.0% 0.8 1.0 5.8%

BofA Global 3.2% 2.4% 4.5% 0.9%

Research

Deutsche Bank 3.1% 2.5% 4.8% 0.8% 1.3% 6.5%

Wells Fargo 2.5%

Investment

Institute

Berenberg 2.7% 2.4% 4.5% 1.0% 1.6% 6.5%

BNP Paribas 2.1% 4.5% 1.5% 1.5% 6.7%

(March

2026)

Peel

Hunt 1.9% 4.4% 1.3% 1.6% 7.0%

ING 4.6% 0.7% 1.4%

2.0%

2.4%

Jefferies (Q4/Q4)

© Reuters. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump arrives for a meeting in Paris, France, December 7, 2024. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.