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Strong U.S. housing data offers ray of hope for slowing economy

Published 01/22/2016, 11:18 AM
Updated 01/22/2016, 12:00 PM
© Reuters. Homes are seen for sale in the northwest area of Portland
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By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. home resales rebounded strongly in December from a 19-month low and prices surged, indicating the housing market recovery remained intact despite signs of a sharp deceleration in economic growth in recent months.

The National Association of Realtors said on Friday existing home sales jumped a record 14.7 percent to an annual rate of 5.46 million units, after being temporarily held back by the introduction of new mortgage disclosure rules, which had caused delays in the closing of contracts in November.

Sales were also boosted by unseasonably warm weather. November's sales pace was unrevised at 4.76 million units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home resales rebounding 8.9 percent to a 5.20-million rate.

Sales rose 6.5 percent to 5.26 million units in 2015, the strongest since 2006. Last month's snap-back suggests that

November's slump was a blip and should offer some assurance that domestic demand remains fairly healthy, even as growth appears to have braked sharply at the end of 2015 because of a downturn in manufacturing and mining activity.

"While the carryover of November's delayed transactions into December contributed to the sharp increase, the overall pace taken together indicates sales these last two months maintained the healthy level of activity seen in most of 2015," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.

Housing is being supported by a strengthening labor market, which has resulted in an acceleration in household formation. Sales, however, remain constrained by a dearth of homes available for sale, which is limiting choice for buyers.

The economy has been hammered by a strong dollar, slowing global demand and deep spending cuts in the energy sector. Businesses are also placing fewer orders with factories while trying to reduce piles of unsold merchandise, which also is putting pressure on the economy.

The dollar was trading higher against a basket of currencies, while prices for U.S. government debt fell. The housing index rallied 3.6 percent, outperforming a broadly firmer U.S. stock market. Shares in the nation's largest homebuilder D.R. Horton Inc surged 4.16 percent and Lennar Corp (N:LEN) advanced 3.9 percent.

A separate report hinted at some stabilization for the downtrodden manufacturing sector. Data firm Markit said its Purchasing Managers Index bounced back in early January from December's 38-month low as output and new business volumes increase at faster rates.

Weak reports on retail sales, inventories, exports and industrial production have left economists estimating that gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of less than 1 percent in the fourth quarter after expanding at a 2 percent pace in the July-September quarter.

A massive stock market sell-off, which has seen a sharp drop in the Standard & Poor's 500 index since Dec. 31, is also adding to gloom over the economy.

In December, the number of unsold homes on the market tumbled 12.3 percent from November to 1.79 million units, the lowest level since January 2013. Supply was down 3.8 percent from a year ago. At December's sales pace, it would take 3.9 months to clear the stock of houses on the market, the fewest since January 2005. That was down from 5.1 months in November.

A six-months supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand. With inventories still tight, the median house price jumped 7.6 percent from a year ago to $224,100. House prices increased 6.7 percent in 2015.

Although higher prices could sideline potential buyers, especially those wanting to purchase a home for the first time, they are boosting equity for homeowners, which could encourage them to put their homes on the market.

© Reuters. Homes are seen for sale in the northwest area of Portland

Realtors and economists say insufficient equity has contributed to the tight housing inventories. Last month, the share of first-time buyers was 32 percent, up from 30 percent in November and the highest share since August.

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