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Teen upgrade cycle sputters, casting doubt on Apple stock rally – Piper Sandler

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 10/09/2024, 05:52 AM
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On Wednesday, Piper Sandler maintained a Neutral stance on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock, with a consistent price target of $225.00, following insights from a comprehensive teen survey. The firm's analysis of the survey data concluded that Apple's stock is currently valued appropriately, as the survey did not indicate an upcoming super cycle for the calendar year 2024.

The survey, which included approximately 13,500 teens, revealed that 22% plan to upgrade to the new iPhone 16 in the coming Fall/Winter season. This intention shows a slight decrease compared to the previous year's surveys, with 23% in Fall 2023 and 24% in Fall 2022 expressing plans to upgrade. Nevertheless, the firm observed an increase in upgrade intentions from 20% in the Spring 2024 survey.

Despite the slight uptick since spring, only about 30% of teens indicated plans to upgrade any of their Apple hardware within the next six months, a figure influenced by the introduction of Apple Intelligence features. Piper Sandler noted this as relatively low considering the general excitement around Apple's innovations.

The firm also pointed out a potential underestimation in their forecast. Many teens are currently using iPhones that are on average three generations older than the iPhone 16. This gap suggests that a significant number of devices may simply be nearing the end of their lifecycle and due for an upgrade.

In other recent news, Apple Inc. has seen a flurry of activity around its stock and future prospects. Citi has upgraded its price target for Apple to $132, maintaining a Buy rating, and anticipates the company to meet its full-year 2024 earnings guidance.

This comes despite Jefferies downgrading Apple from a Buy to a Hold rating due to concerns about the upcoming iPhone's capabilities in artificial intelligence (AI). Evercore ISI, on the other hand, has maintained its Outperform rating for Apple, citing stable demand for the new iPhone 16 and 16 Pro models.

In addition, Foxconn, a major assembler for Apple's iPhones, reported a significant 20.2% increase in its Q3 revenue, surpassing initial forecasts. This growth is seen as an indicator of demand for Apple's products. Mizuho analysts suggest that Apple's focus on AI services could drive demand for various iPhone 16 components, potentially influencing the value chain.

These recent developments come as Apple prepares for the production of a new iPhone SE and iPad Air models. However, Apple is also facing a complaint from the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) alleging the implementation of illegal workplace rules. Furthermore, a recent fire at a Tata Group facility in Tamil Nadu, which has halted the production of iPhone components, might disrupt Apple's supply chain.

InvestingPro Insights

While Piper Sandler maintains a Neutral stance on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) with a $225.00 price target, recent InvestingPro data provides additional context to the company's market position. Apple's market capitalization stands at an impressive $3.43 trillion, reflecting its dominant position in the technology sector. The company's P/E ratio of 34.14 suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for Apple's earnings, which aligns with the firm's status as a prominent player in the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals industry.

InvestingPro Tips highlight that Apple has raised its dividend for 12 consecutive years, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns. This could be particularly appealing to long-term investors, even as the teen survey indicates a potential slowdown in upgrade intentions. Additionally, Apple's stock is trading near its 52-week high, with a substantial 33.4% price return over the past six months, indicating strong market confidence despite the survey's mixed signals.

For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 16 additional tips on Apple, providing a broader perspective on the company's financial health and market position.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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