On Monday, HSBC increased its price target for Adyen NV (AS:ADYEN:NA) (OTC: ADYYF) to €1,800 from the previous €1,600, while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. The firm cited the potential benefits from the company's investments in sales, which are expected to yield positive results despite a weak spending environment and challenging comparisons in the second half of 2024.
HSBC's analyst pointed out that from 2025, Adyen is anticipated to surpass the cautious consensus with stronger revenue growth and operating leverage. This optimism is based on several factors, including increased penetration of share of wallet, the acquisition of new clients, and the ramp-up after one year. The firm's analysis suggests that Adyen's valuation is not overly stretched, noting that the company's share price has increased by 15% year-to-date, which is in line with the AEX index's performance.
The analyst highlighted Adyen's valuation metrics, stating that the company trades at an enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple of 28 times and a price to earnings (PE) ratio of 37 times for the year 2025 estimates. This valuation is approximately 1.5 times the average earnings per share (EPS) growth of 27% from 2023 to 2026.
HSBC believes that improved communication from Adyen, coupled with an expected gradual acceleration of the group's performance and lower volatility, will bolster confidence in the long-term prospects of the company. This confidence is anticipated to contribute to a further re-rating of the stock. The price target adjustment also reflects higher estimates and a reduced weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which has been lowered to 7.5% from 8.0%.
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